Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Eternal Fire, while the market favors MIBR (62%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Eternal Fire (80%) · Eternal Fire at 39¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Eternal Fire
5
Eternal Fire 80%
$8.2K
$65.07
39¢ → 38.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralEternal Fire at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors MIBR 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123CTR | Eternal Fireavg 39¢ | $4.7K | $4.8K | +$60.45 | 52% 1561-1444 (3005) |
RA Rayaya | MIBRavg 61¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$15 | 60% 1171-771 (1942) |
 StudyPredictionCTR | Eternal Fireavg 38.8¢ | $985.73 | $1.0K | +$18.12 | 53% 4573-3988 (8561) |
 relativesignificanceCTR | Eternal Fireavg 39¢ | $442.81 | $442.81 | +$0 | 57% 99-76 (175) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Eternal Fireavg 39¢ | $117 | $118.5 | +$1.5 | 46% 7844-9262 (17106) |
Invested
$4,715.09
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$60.45
Record
52%
1561-1444 (3005)
Invested
$1,830
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$15
Record
60%
1171-771 (1942)
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$985.73
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$18.12
Record
53%
4573-3988 (8561)
relativesignificanceCTRInvested
$442.81
Value
$442.81
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
99-76 (175)
Invested
$117
Value
$118.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
46%
7844-9262 (17106)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.