Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold MIBR, while the market favors Eternal Fire (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold MIBR (50%) · MIBR at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
MIBR
6
MIBR 50%
$1.6K
$-2.2K
39.2¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidMIBR at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Eternal Fire 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Eternal Fireavg 60¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$200 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
 StudyPrediction | Eternal Fireavg 62¢ | $214.67 | $223.32 | +$8.66 | 54% 4511-3901 (8412) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | MIBRavg 36¢ | $107 | $105.51 | -$1.49 | 55% 126-102 (228) |
VI vibing123<$100 | Eternal Fireavg 62¢ | $6.2 | $6.45 | +$0.25 | 52% 1534-1417 (2951) |
 RN1CTR | MIBRavg 39.4¢ | $2.4K | $2.99 | $-2.3K | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
 HRTradingCTR | MIBRavg 39.1¢ | $100.22 | $0.13 | -$100.09 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,200
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$200
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
StudyPredictionInvested
$214.67
Value
$223.32
PnL
+$8.66
Record
54%
4511-3901 (8412)
Invested
$107
Value
$105.51
PnL
-$1.49
Record
55%
126-102 (228)
Invested
$6.2
Value
$6.45
PnL
+$0.25
Record
52%
1534-1417 (2951)
RN1CTRInvested
$2,352.1
Value
$2.99
PnL
$-2.3K
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$100.22
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$100.09
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.