Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Eternal Fire (45%) · Eternal Fire at 100¢ · $51K held · ends Oct 27

MIBR<1¢Eternal Fire>99¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eternal Fire

Consensus Traders

Eternal Fire 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$51.4K

Combined PnL

$7.0K

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 100¢

+84% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralEternal Fire at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eternal Fire

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

MIBR0%

Eternal Fire100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eternal Fire5 traders

Total Value$30.8K

Total Shares30,954

Combined PnL+$8.3K

MIBR6 traders

Total Value$20.0K

Total Shares33,020

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Eternal Fire — 45%MIBR — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Eternal Fireavg 51.1¢	$18.2K	$27.2K	+$9.1K	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
PN pnhctCTR	MIBRavg 47.7¢	$9.1K	$9.5K	+$419.59	54% 442-380 (822)
7D 0x7d78...29a5CTR	MIBRavg 51¢	$9.7K	$8.5K	$-1.2K	—
AA aaaa298	Eternal Fireavg 86.5¢	$3.7K	$2.8K	-$925.58	58% 731-523 (1254)
DE delacsynzy1CTR	MIBRavg 54.9¢	$1.0K	$983.26	-$16.74	51% 427-413 (840)
latvian.demonCTR	MIBRavg 63.6¢	$1.2K	$767.73	-$409.24	54% 619-530 (1149)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Eternal Fireavg 57.5¢	$409.29	$596.26	+$186.97	52% 13489-12341 (25830)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	MIBRavg 53¢	$3.7K	$584.43	+$87.9	54% 1032-873 (1905)
└ Eternal Fire leg	Eternal Fireavg 44.6¢	$259.73	$454.21	+$366.1
└ MIBR leg	MIBRavg 53¢	$313.61	$130.22	-$278.2
PI PIPIZINCTR	MIBRavg 55¢	$300	$294.55	-$5.45	51% 390-372 (762)
MR MrConsistency	Eternal Fireavg 50¢	$150	$123	-$27	39% 540-834 (1374)
poshposh<$100	Eternal Fireavg 70¢	$50.87	$61.38	+$10.51	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR<$100	MIBRavg 14¢	$23.3	$19.97	-$3.33	51% 328-321 (649)

RN1

Eternal Fire

Invested

$18,151.5

Value

$27.2K

PnL

+$9.1K

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

pnhctCTR

MIBR

Invested

$9,050.3

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$419.59

Record

54%

442-380 (822)

0x7d78...29a5CTR

MIBR

Invested

$9,706.91

Value

$8.5K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

—

aaaa298

Eternal Fire

Invested

$3,748.59

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$925.58

Record

58%

731-523 (1254)

delacsynzy1CTR

MIBR

Invested

$1,000

Value

$983.26

PnL

-$16.74

Record

51%

427-413 (840)

latvian.demonCTR

MIBR

Invested

$1,176.97

Value

$767.73

PnL

-$409.24

Record

54%

619-530 (1149)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Eternal Fire

Invested

$409.29

Value

$596.26

PnL

+$186.97

Record

52%

13489-12341 (25830)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

MIBR

Invested

$3,675.97

Value

$584.43

PnL

+$87.9

Record

54%

1032-873 (1905)

Both legs:

Eternal Fire$259.7344.6¢+$366.1

MIBR$313.6153¢-$278.2

PIPIZINCTR

MIBR

Invested

$300

Value

$294.55

PnL

-$5.45

Record

51%

390-372 (762)

MrConsistency

Eternal Fire

Invested

$150

Value

$123

PnL

-$27

Record

39%

540-834 (1374)

poshposh<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$50.87

Value

$61.38

PnL

+$10.51

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR<$100

MIBR

Invested

$23.3

Value

$19.97

PnL

-$3.33

Record

51%

328-321 (649)

Research grade

NeutralEternal Fire at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Eternal Fire

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eternal Fire wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.