Games Total: O/U 2.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
$1.8K
-$98.55
51¢ → 58.5¢
+15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xedrtgfBdecfrhyeerd | Overavg 53.5¢ | $994.95 | $873.87 | -$121.07 | 33% 70-141 (211) |
 StudyPrediction | Overavg 46¢ | $432.9 | $442.31 | +$9.41 | 53% 4542-3955 (8497) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 46.9¢ | $356.59 | $361.3 | +$4.71 | 54% 55709-47794 (103503) |
YI yishiwucheng<$100 | Overavg 49.9¢ | $35.95 | $42.12 | +$6.17 | 41% 642-914 (1556) |
BA BAPEHUKCTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $24.93 | $25.87 | +$0.94 | 49% 401-416 (817) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $8.86 | $10.2 | +$1.35 | 60% 9356-6329 (15685) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.35 | -$0.05 | 49% 18594-19014 (37608) |
Invested
$994.95
Value
$873.87
PnL
-$121.07
Record
33%
70-141 (211)
StudyPredictionInvested
$432.9
Value
$442.31
PnL
+$9.41
Record
53%
4542-3955 (8497)
RN1CTRInvested
$356.59
Value
$361.3
PnL
+$4.71
Record
54%
55709-47794 (103503)
Invested
$35.95
Value
$42.12
PnL
+$6.17
Record
41%
642-914 (1556)
Invested
$24.93
Value
$25.87
PnL
+$0.94
Record
49%
401-416 (817)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$8.86
Value
$10.2
PnL
+$1.35
Record
60%
9356-6329 (15685)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.35
PnL
-$0.05
Record
49%
18594-19014 (37608)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.