Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Nemiga (+1.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga (36%) · Nemiga at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 28

TheMongolz<1¢Nemiga>99¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nemiga

Consensus Traders

Nemiga 36%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$232.94

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 99.6¢

+38% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNemiga at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

TheMongolz0%

Nemiga100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga4 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares7,040

Combined PnL+$118.92

TheMongolz7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares4,026

Combined PnL+$114.03

Nemiga — 36%TheMongolz — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA para-Vision	Nemigaavg 69¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$53.02	56% 196-157 (353)
RN1	Nemigaavg 81¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$164.45	54% 55709-47794 (103503)
StudyPredictionCTR	TheMongolzavg 29.9¢	$1.8K	$685.01	+$116.11	53% 4542-3955 (8497)
SP sportteryqqCTR	TheMongolzavg 31.3¢	$211.1	$205.44	-$5.66	40% 409-620 (1029)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	TheMongolzavg 31¢	$155	$157.5	+$2.5	53% 5498-4842 (10340)
SN SnakeBallCTR	TheMongolzavg 31¢	$133.3	$135.45	+$2.15	50% 32771-32328 (65099)
GT gt7238CTR<$100	TheMongolzavg 31¢	$68.07	$66.97	-$1.1	45% 590-718 (1308)
YI yishiwucheng<$100	Nemigaavg 81.4¢	$49.63	$55.51	+$5.88	41% 642-914 (1556)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Nemigaavg 76¢	$30.4	$32	+$1.6	47% 2038-2342 (4380)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	TheMongolzavg 31¢	$5.25	$5.33	+$0.08	47% 2405-2688 (5093)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	TheMongolzavg 32¢	$3.75	$3.69	-$0.06	49% 18594-19014 (37608)

para-Vision

Nemiga

Invested

$3,658.25

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$53.02

Record

56%

196-157 (353)

RN1

Nemiga

Invested

$1,325.47

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$164.45

Record

54%

55709-47794 (103503)

StudyPredictionCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,848.89

Value

$685.01

PnL

+$116.11

Record

53%

4542-3955 (8497)

sportteryqqCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$211.1

Value

$205.44

PnL

-$5.66

Record

40%

409-620 (1029)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$155

Value

$157.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

5498-4842 (10340)

SnakeBallCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$133.3

Value

$135.45

PnL

+$2.15

Record

50%

32771-32328 (65099)

gt7238CTR<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$68.07

Value

$66.97

PnL

-$1.1

Record

45%

590-718 (1308)

yishiwucheng<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$49.63

Value

$55.51

PnL

+$5.88

Record

41%

642-914 (1556)

ameisgoat11<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$30.4

Value

$32

PnL

+$1.6

Record

47%

2038-2342 (4380)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$5.25

Value

$5.33

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

2405-2688 (5093)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.69

PnL

-$0.06

Record

49%

18594-19014 (37608)

Research grade

NeutralNemiga at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.