Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Nemiga - Map 2 Winner

23 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold TheMongolz (70%) · TheMongolz at 89¢ · $173K held · ends Oct 28

TheMongolz89¢Nemiga11¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

TheMongolz

Consensus Traders

TheMongolz 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$172.5K

Combined PnL

$8.1K

Smart Money Entry

67.9¢ → 89¢

+31% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralTheMongolz at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

TheMongolz

23 of 33 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

TheMongolz89%

Nemiga11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

TheMongolz23 traders

Total Value$150.8K

Total Shares169,699

Combined PnL+$11.2K

Nemiga10 traders

Total Value$21.2K

Total Shares56,866

Combined PnL$-3.2K

TheMongolz — 70%Nemiga — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	TheMongolzavg 65.4¢	$22.4K	$27.5K	+$5.0K	54% 55710-47796 (103506)
II iii252	TheMongolzavg 83.5¢	$23.7K	$23.6K	-$98.36	56% 1093-846 (1939)
PN pnhct	TheMongolzavg 70.3¢	$22.2K	$23.1K	+$845.18	54% 450-390 (840)
YI yishiwucheng	TheMongolzavg 48.5¢	$10.3K	$17.7K	+$7.4K	41% 642-914 (1556)
RE redvinny	TheMongolzavg 87.9¢	$18.8K	$14.7K	$-2.6K	75% 1468-493 (1961)
AA aaaa298	TheMongolzavg 85.2¢	$16.1K	$14.6K	$-1.5K	58% 745-532 (1277)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Nemigaavg 44.9¢	$13.6K	$12.8K	-$717.22	53% 1199-1077 (2276)
AQ aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994	TheMongolzavg 60¢	$7.2K	$7.2K	+$0	57% 645-492 (1137)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	TheMongolzavg 63¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$122.05	52% 13552-12397 (25949)
13 1337zzz1337	TheMongolzavg 55.1¢	$4.0K	$4.4K	+$354.42	52% 207-193 (400)
cruzNBACTR	Nemigaavg 58.1¢	$5.5K	$3.8K	$-1.7K	42% 392-545 (937)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinha	TheMongolzavg 36¢	$2.0K	$3.3K	+$1.3K	52% 64-58 (122)
KateBollingerCTR	Nemigaavg 19¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$160.88	69% 1726-786 (2512)
0xHunterOk	TheMongolzavg 59¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$15.75	54% 240-207 (447)
CA Catch8877	TheMongolzavg 60¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$0	51% 147-139 (286)
BA Babooou	TheMongolzavg 59¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$26.97	52% 203-187 (390)
DE delacsynzy1CTR	Nemigaavg 56.8¢	$2.0K	$1.4K	-$590.95	51% 432-415 (847)
GT gt7238	TheMongolzavg 45.9¢	$783.42	$878.08	+$94.66	45% 590-718 (1308)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	TheMongolzavg 78.9¢	$782.48	$579.22	-$203.26	58% 18396-13497 (31893)
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 78.9¢	$586.28	$460.66	-$125.62
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 62.9¢	$196.2	$118.56	-$77.64
TH THEHIGHLIFECTR	Nemigaavg 42¢	$535.32	$541.7	+$6.37	54% 2462-2116 (4578)
cs2.quant	TheMongolzavg 52¢	$500	$495.19	-$4.81	57% 73-55 (128)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	TheMongolzavg 45.3¢	$374.5	$494.64	+$120.14	51% 1277-1210 (2487)
RU Ruler11	TheMongolzavg 45¢	$300	$400	+$100	51% 282-271 (553)
CH chillhouse123	TheMongolzavg 64.6¢	$472.45	$393.69	+$14.37	52% 3674-3330 (7004)
AS astapzippo	TheMongolzavg 76¢	$367.07	$369.49	+$2.41	56% 2121-1661 (3782)

RN1

TheMongolz

Invested

$22,438.59

Value

$27.5K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

54%

55710-47796 (103506)

iii252

TheMongolz

Invested

$23,654.18

Value

$23.6K

PnL

-$98.36

Record

56%

1093-846 (1939)

pnhct

TheMongolz

Invested

$22,209.15

Value

$23.1K

PnL

+$845.18

Record

54%

450-390 (840)

yishiwucheng

TheMongolz

Invested

$10,262.54

Value

$17.7K

PnL

+$7.4K

Record

41%

642-914 (1556)

redvinny

TheMongolz

Invested

$18,773.46

Value

$14.7K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

75%

1468-493 (1961)

aaaa298

TheMongolz

Invested

$16,120.68

Value

$14.6K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

58%

745-532 (1277)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Nemiga

Invested

$13,554.95

Value

$12.8K

PnL

-$717.22

Record

53%

1199-1077 (2276)

aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994

TheMongolz

Invested

$7,200

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

645-492 (1137)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

TheMongolz

Invested

$5,976.56

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$122.05

Record

52%

13552-12397 (25949)

1337zzz1337

TheMongolz

Invested

$4,000

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$354.42

Record

52%

207-193 (400)

cruzNBACTR

Nemiga

Invested

$5,508.25

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

42%

392-545 (937)

AnibalAugustoSardinha

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,999.8

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

52%

64-58 (122)

KateBollingerCTR

Nemiga

Invested

$2,037.84

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$160.88

Record

69%

1726-786 (2512)

0xHunterOk

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,873.48

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$15.75

Record

54%

240-207 (447)

Catch8877

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,768.2

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

147-139 (286)

Babooou

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,591.19

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$26.97

Record

52%

203-187 (390)

delacsynzy1CTR

Nemiga

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$590.95

Record

51%

432-415 (847)

gt7238

TheMongolz

Invested

$783.42

Value

$878.08

PnL

+$94.66

Record

45%

590-718 (1308)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$782.48

Value

$579.22

PnL

-$203.26

Record

58%

18396-13497 (31893)

Both legs:

TheMongolz$586.2878.9¢-$125.62

Nemiga$196.262.9¢-$77.64

THEHIGHLIFECTR

Nemiga

Invested

$535.32

Value

$541.7

PnL

+$6.37

Record

54%

2462-2116 (4578)

cs2.quant

TheMongolz

Invested

$500

Value

$495.19

PnL

-$4.81

Record

57%

73-55 (128)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

TheMongolz

Invested

$374.5

Value

$494.64

PnL

+$120.14

Record

51%

1277-1210 (2487)

Ruler11

TheMongolz

Invested

$300

Value

$400

PnL

+$100

Record

51%

282-271 (553)

chillhouse123

TheMongolz

Invested

$472.45

Value

$393.69

PnL

+$14.37

Record

52%

3674-3330 (7004)

astapzippo

TheMongolz

Invested

$367.07

Value

$369.49

PnL

+$2.41

Record

56%

2121-1661 (3782)

Research grade

NeutralTheMongolz at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

TheMongolz

23 of 33 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that TheMongolz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.