Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Nemiga - Map 1 Winner

15 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga (54%) · Nemiga at 100¢ · $118K held · ends Oct 28

TheMongolz<1¢Nemiga>99¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nemiga

Consensus Traders

Nemiga 54%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$118.2K

Combined PnL

$3.7K

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 100¢

+43% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNemiga at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga

15 of 28 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

TheMongolz0%

Nemiga100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga15 traders

Total Value$94.8K

Total Shares113,897

Combined PnL+$6.4K

TheMongolz13 traders

Total Value$20.9K

Total Shares55,786

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Nemiga — 54%TheMongolz — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
cruzNBA	Nemigaavg 58.7¢	$15.5K	$17.5K	+$2.1K	42% 392-545 (937)
RN1	Nemigaavg 68.1¢	$15.8K	$17.1K	+$1.2K	54% 55709-47794 (103503)
LU LuckyWin	Nemigaavg 99.9¢	$12.6K	$12.6K	+$6.32	85% 760-131 (891)
PN pnhct	Nemigaavg 72.5¢	$12.4K	$12.6K	+$155.6	54% 450-390 (840)
0X 0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239CTR	TheMongolzavg 44¢	$12.7K	$11.5K	$-1.2K	41% 278-406 (684)
II iii252	Nemigaavg 85¢	$17.2K	$9.7K	-$105.21	56% 1093-846 (1939)
FA fantasy7788	Nemigaavg 65.2¢	$10.0K	$9.4K	-$571.12	42% 73-99 (172)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Nemigaavg 71.9¢	$5.6K	$5.8K	+$170.94	52% 13549-12397 (25946)
JohnLKellyJr	Nemigaavg 47.7¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$137.5	53% 1199-1077 (2276)
AA aaaa298	Nemigaavg 73.1¢	$13.5K	$3.6K	+$3.4K	58% 745-532 (1277)
A8 a8999CTR	TheMongolzavg 51.8¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$86.69	44% 1072-1363 (2435)
LU luckycat888888CTR	TheMongolzavg 50¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30	48% 23-25 (48)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Nemigaavg 74.8¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$197.97	58% 18394-13497 (31891)
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 43.5¢	$673.5	$627.73	-$45.78
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 74.8¢	$743.03	$590.83	-$152.2
GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR	TheMongolzavg 43¢	$1.0K	$959.09	-$71.93	50% 547-546 (1093)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100	Nemigaavg 71.7¢	$941.83	$814.65	-$127.18	53% 3104-2733 (5837)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 71.7¢	$730	$605.4	-$124.6
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 41¢	$211.83	$209.25	-$2.58
FA facaigege	Nemigaavg 75¢	$833.25	$805.48	-$27.77	48% 380-412 (792)
cs2.quant	Nemigaavg 62¢	$700	$677.71	-$22.29	57% 73-55 (128)
forsenxdCTR	TheMongolzavg 50¢	$618.41	$624.59	+$6.18	54% 1041-903 (1944)
GT gt7238	Nemigaavg 68¢	$562.6	$580	+$17.4	45% 590-718 (1308)
CH chillhouse123	Nemigaavg 67.6¢	$444.06	$432.37	+$37.32	52% 3674-3330 (7004)
YI yishiwuchengCTR	TheMongolzavg 33.7¢	$1.8K	$430.4	$-1.4K	41% 642-914 (1556)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Nemigaavg 60¢	$270.26	$296.59	+$26.33	49% 18594-19014 (37608)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 60¢	$163.1	$193	+$29.9
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 30¢	$107.16	$103.59	-$3.57
HO HongweiqianCTR	TheMongolzavg 13.1¢	$400	$289.5	-$110.5	47% 212-236 (448)
poshposh	Nemigaavg 85.7¢	$277.38	$267.14	-$10.24	60% 9356-6329 (15685)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	TheMongolzavg 50¢	$250	$252.5	+$2.5	53% 5498-4842 (10340)

cruzNBA

Nemiga

Invested

$15,487.63

Value

$17.5K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

42%

392-545 (937)

RN1

Nemiga

Invested

$15,847.49

Value

$17.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

54%

55709-47794 (103503)

LuckyWin

Nemiga

Invested

$12,623.48

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$6.32

Record

85%

760-131 (891)

pnhct

Nemiga

Invested

$12,420.29

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$155.6

Record

54%

450-390 (840)

0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$12,658.35

Value

$11.5K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

41%

278-406 (684)

iii252

Nemiga

Invested

$17,186.67

Value

$9.7K

PnL

-$105.21

Record

56%

1093-846 (1939)

fantasy7788

Nemiga

Invested

$10,000

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$571.12

Record

42%

73-99 (172)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Nemiga

Invested

$5,584.26

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$170.94

Record

52%

13549-12397 (25946)

JohnLKellyJr

Nemiga

Invested

$3,554.48

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$137.5

Record

53%

1199-1077 (2276)

aaaa298

Nemiga

Invested

$13,471.28

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

58%

745-532 (1277)

a8999CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$3,451

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$86.69

Record

44%

1072-1363 (2435)

luckycat888888CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30

Record

48%

23-25 (48)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$1,416.53

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$197.97

Record

58%

18394-13497 (31891)

Both legs:

TheMongolz$673.543.5¢-$45.78

Nemiga$743.0374.8¢-$152.2

GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,031.02

Value

$959.09

PnL

-$71.93

Record

50%

547-546 (1093)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$941.83

Value

$814.65

PnL

-$127.18

Record

53%

3104-2733 (5837)

Both legs:

Nemiga$73071.7¢-$124.6

TheMongolz$211.8341¢-$2.58

facaigege

Nemiga

Invested

$833.25

Value

$805.48

PnL

-$27.77

Record

48%

380-412 (792)

cs2.quant

Nemiga

Invested

$700

Value

$677.71

PnL

-$22.29

Record

57%

73-55 (128)

forsenxdCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$618.41

Value

$624.59

PnL

+$6.18

Record

54%

1041-903 (1944)

gt7238

Nemiga

Invested

$562.6

Value

$580

PnL

+$17.4

Record

45%

590-718 (1308)

chillhouse123

Nemiga

Invested

$444.06

Value

$432.37

PnL

+$37.32

Record

52%

3674-3330 (7004)

yishiwuchengCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,784.2

Value

$430.4

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

41%

642-914 (1556)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$270.26

Value

$296.59

PnL

+$26.33

Record

49%

18594-19014 (37608)

Both legs:

Nemiga$163.160¢+$29.9

TheMongolz$107.1630¢-$3.57

HongweiqianCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$400

Value

$289.5

PnL

-$110.5

Record

47%

212-236 (448)

poshposh

Nemiga

Invested

$277.38

Value

$267.14

PnL

-$10.24

Record

60%

9356-6329 (15685)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$250

Value

$252.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

5498-4842 (10340)

Research grade

NeutralNemiga at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga

15 of 28 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.