Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nemiga, while the market favors TheMongolz (57%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga (57%) · Nemiga at 43¢ · $40K held · ends Oct 28

TheMongolz57¢Nemiga43¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nemiga

Consensus Traders

Nemiga 57%

Total Value

$39.8K

Combined PnL

-$193.24

Smart Money Entry

42.1¢ → 42.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNemiga at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors TheMongolz 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

TheMongolz57%

Nemiga43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

TheMongolz3 traders

Total Value$18.8K

Total Shares32,740

Combined PnL-$379.26

Nemiga4 traders

Total Value$21.0K

Total Shares49,371

Combined PnL+$186.02

TheMongolz — 43%Nemiga — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740	TheMongolzavg 58.7¢	$17.6K	$17.2K	-$365.56	54% 310-264 (574)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	Nemigaavg 42.2¢	$16.4K	$16.6K	+$122.95	52% 127-115 (242)
HU humbleboyCTR	Nemigaavg 42¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$40	54% 500-421 (921)
StudyPrediction	TheMongolzavg 58¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$10	53% 4529-3951 (8480)
SE sentrioCTR	Nemigaavg 41¢	$494.11	$512.19	+$18.08	50% 24837-24532 (49369)
DA dancingmonkey1CTR	Nemigaavg 42.1¢	$505	$510	+$5	54% 1235-1072 (2307)
LU LucasCosta.	TheMongolzavg 58¢	$429.2	$425.5	-$3.7	41% 326-469 (795)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740

TheMongolz

Invested

$17,615.55

Value

$17.2K

PnL

-$365.56

Record

54%

310-264 (574)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

Nemiga

Invested

$16,437.57

Value

$16.6K

PnL

+$122.95

Record

52%

127-115 (242)

humbleboyCTR

Nemiga

Invested

$3,360

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$40

Record

54%

500-421 (921)

StudyPrediction

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,160

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

4529-3951 (8480)

sentrioCTR

Nemiga

Invested

$494.11

Value

$512.19

PnL

+$18.08

Record

50%

24837-24532 (49369)

dancingmonkey1CTR

Nemiga

Invested

$505

Value

$510

PnL

+$5

Record

54%

1235-1072 (2307)

LucasCosta.

TheMongolz

Invested

$429.2

Value

$425.5

PnL

-$3.7

Record

41%

326-469 (795)

Research grade

NeutralNemiga at 43%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors TheMongolz 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.