Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner
11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold TheMongolz (58%) · TheMongolz at 100¢ · $156K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
TheMongolz
19
TheMongolz 58%
2 arb excluded
$155.6K
$8.9K
55.6¢ → 100¢
+80% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralTheMongolz at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 19 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | TheMongolzavg 38.5¢ | $23.8K | $32.9K | +$9.1K | 54% 55313-47351 (102664) |
PN pnhct | TheMongolzavg 48.8¢ | $30.4K | $31.8K | +$1.3K | 54% 433-372 (805) |
AA aaaa298 | TheMongolzavg 57.6¢ | $26.8K | $25.4K | $-1.4K | 58% 722-519 (1241) |
 cruzNBAARB<$100 | TheMongolzavg 65.9¢ | $28.2K | $22.1K | $-6.1K | 42% 390-535 (925) |
| └ Legacy leg | Legacyavg 59.6¢ | $12.4K | $12.4K | -$30.71 | |
| └ TheMongolz leg | TheMongolzavg 65.9¢ | $15.8K | $9.7K | $-6.1K | |
 CoinTrick | TheMongolzavg 99.9¢ | $17.6K | $17.6K | +$8.8 | 98% 3055-75 (3130) |
 JohnLKellyJrCTR | Legacyavg 55.6¢ | $10.4K | $11.2K | +$738.95 | 53% 1180-1054 (2234) |
LU luckycat888888CTR | Legacyavg 55¢ | $4.1K | $4.5K | +$337.5 | 50% 19-19 (38) |
JE jessy2CTR | Legacyavg 52.7¢ | $2.0K | $2.2K | +$253.84 | 53% 87-77 (164) |
FA facaigege | TheMongolzavg 41.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$34.5 | 48% 376-403 (779) |
HO Hongweiqian | TheMongolzavg 67¢ | $2.2K | $1.3K | -$857.67 | 46% 202-234 (436) |
 timebrotime | TheMongolzavg 65.9¢ | $3.0K | $1.2K | $-1.1K | 67% 885-432 (1317) |
DE delacsynzy1 | TheMongolzavg 50.3¢ | $1.0K | $805.15 | -$194.85 | 51% 424-409 (833) |
GT gt7238 | TheMongolzavg 34.8¢ | $688.01 | $801.49 | +$113.48 | 45% 579-703 (1282) |
A8 a8999CTR | Legacyavg 56¢ | $1.2K | $480.95 | +$18.29 | 44% 1067-1355 (2422) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR | Legacyavg 52.8¢ | $398.57 | $449.22 | +$50.65 | 58% 18294-13443 (31737) |
SH shiifoo | TheMongolzavg 46¢ | $273.59 | $410.79 | +$226.2 | 60% 3216-2158 (5374) |
PI PIPIZIN | TheMongolzavg 53¢ | $300 | $229.25 | -$70.75 | 51% 388-369 (757) |
CH chillhouse123ARB<$100 | TheMongolzavg 36.6¢ | $468.91 | $226.95 | -$30.92 | 52% 3661-3319 (6980) |
| └ TheMongolz leg | TheMongolzavg 36.6¢ | $111.06 | $123.01 | +$11.95 | |
| └ Legacy leg | Legacyavg 62.8¢ | $109.7 | $103.94 | -$42.87 | |
GR GroolCTR | Legacyavg 51¢ | $152.95 | $178.5 | +$25.55 | 54% 1584-1365 (2949) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Legacyavg 56¢ | $24.58 | $26.11 | +$1.54 | 60% 9077-5998 (15075) |
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR | Legacyavg 47.9¢ | $9.6K | $0.27 | +$345.77 | 54% 1024-865 (1889) |
RN1Invested
$23,808.96
Value
$32.9K
PnL
+$9.1K
Record
54%
55313-47351 (102664)
Invested
$30,432.17
Value
$31.8K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
54%
433-372 (805)
Invested
$26,758.82
Value
$25.4K
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
58%
722-519 (1241)
cruzNBAARB<$100Invested
$28,233.1
Value
$22.1K
PnL
$-6.1K
Record
42%
390-535 (925)
Both legs:
CoinTrickInvested
$17,579.36
Value
$17.6K
PnL
+$8.8
Record
98%
3055-75 (3130)
JohnLKellyJrCTRInvested
$10,443.63
Value
$11.2K
PnL
+$738.95
Record
53%
1180-1054 (2234)
Invested
$4,124.98
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$337.5
Record
50%
19-19 (38)
Invested
$1,953.9
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$253.84
Record
53%
87-77 (164)
Invested
$1,847.25
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$34.5
Record
48%
376-403 (779)
Invested
$2,168.44
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$857.67
Record
46%
202-234 (436)
timebrotimeInvested
$3,000
Value
$1.2K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
67%
885-432 (1317)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$805.15
PnL
-$194.85
Record
51%
424-409 (833)
Invested
$688.01
Value
$801.49
PnL
+$113.48
Record
45%
579-703 (1282)
Invested
$1,212.12
Value
$480.95
PnL
+$18.29
Record
44%
1067-1355 (2422)
Invested
$398.57
Value
$449.22
PnL
+$50.65
Record
58%
18294-13443 (31737)
Invested
$273.59
Value
$410.79
PnL
+$226.2
Record
60%
3216-2158 (5374)
Invested
$300
Value
$229.25
PnL
-$70.75
Record
51%
388-369 (757)
Invested
$468.91
Value
$226.95
PnL
-$30.92
Record
52%
3661-3319 (6980)
Both legs:
Invested
$152.95
Value
$178.5
PnL
+$25.55
Record
54%
1584-1365 (2949)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$24.58
Value
$26.11
PnL
+$1.54
Record
60%
9077-5998 (15075)
Invested
$9,599.08
Value
$0.27
PnL
+$345.77
Record
54%
1024-865 (1889)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
TheMongolz — $32.9K
pnhct
TheMongolz — $31.8K
aaaa298
TheMongolz — $25.4K
cruzNBA
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CoinTrick
TheMongolz — $17.6K
JohnLKellyJr
CTRLegacy — $11.2K
luckycat888888
CTRLegacy — $4.5K
jessy2
CTRLegacy — $2.2K
facaigege
TheMongolz — $1.8K
Hongweiqian
TheMongolz — $1.3K