Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Heroic (43%) · Heroic at 53¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 3

TheMongolz48¢Heroic52¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Heroic

Consensus Traders

Heroic 43%

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

$229.27

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 52.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralHeroic at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heroic

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

TheMongolz48%

Heroic53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heroic3 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares20,121

Combined PnL+$262.68

TheMongolz4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,849

Combined PnL-$33.41

Heroic — 43%TheMongolz — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Heroic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeroic 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000TheMongolz 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	Heroicavg 51.2¢	$9.9K	$10.2K	+$251.59	56% 207-160 (367)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	TheMongolzavg 49.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$18.46	47% 2636-2949 (5585)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	TheMongolzavg 51¢	$254.99	$244.99	-$10	53% 5767-5107 (10874)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Heroicavg 52¢	$208	$210	+$2	51% 1616-1562 (3178)
FeedTheBigBird	Heroicavg 50¢	$181.75	$190.83	+$9.09	47% 54-62 (116)
GH ghorrockCTR	TheMongolzavg 49.6¢	$169.28	$101.4	-$4.95	57% 17526-13092 (30618)
poshposhCTR<$100	TheMongolzavg 49¢	$11.15	$11.15	-$0	58% 11657-8494 (20151)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Heroic

Invested

$9,911.24

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$251.59

Record

56%

207-160 (367)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,073.77

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$18.46

Record

47%

2636-2949 (5585)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$254.99

Value

$244.99

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

5767-5107 (10874)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Heroic

Invested

$208

Value

$210

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

1616-1562 (3178)

FeedTheBigBird

Heroic

Invested

$181.75

Value

$190.83

PnL

+$9.09

Record

47%

54-62 (116)

ghorrockCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$169.28

Value

$101.4

PnL

-$4.95

Record

57%

17526-13092 (30618)

poshposhCTR<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$11.15

Value

$11.15

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

11657-8494 (20151)

Research grade

NeutralHeroic at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Heroic

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Heroic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeroic 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000TheMongolz 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heroic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.