Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Heroic, while the market favors TheMongolz (52%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Heroic (63%) · Heroic at 49¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Heroic
8
Heroic 63%
$14.5K
$21.19
48.7¢ → 48.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralHeroic at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors TheMongolz 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Heroic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FK fkAL | TheMongolzavg 51¢ | $4.0K | $4.1K | +$78.97 | 63% 2049-1225 (3274) |
HU humbleboyCTR | Heroicavg 48.9¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | -$74.03 | 54% 518-433 (951) |
VI vibing123CTR | Heroicavg 48¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$23.25 | 52% 1580-1467 (3047) |
 ReformedxCTR | Heroicavg 49¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | +$20 | 51% 847-798 (1645) |
 Stickman22CTR | Heroicavg 49¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$12.5 | 52% 1677-1555 (3232) |
AS astapzippo | TheMongolzavg 51.7¢ | $750.2 | $739.5 | -$17.95 | 56% 2173-1716 (3889) |
RA Rayaya | TheMongolzavg 51¢ | $342.25 | $345.6 | +$3.36 | 60% 1191-785 (1976) |
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100 | Heroicavg 48¢ | $2.76 | $2.76 | +$0.09 | 51% 11446-10800 (22246) |
Invested
$4,027.47
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$78.97
Record
63%
2049-1225 (3274)
Invested
$4,028.3
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$74.03
Record
54%
518-433 (951)
Invested
$2,167.64
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$23.25
Record
52%
1580-1467 (3047)
ReformedxCTRInvested
$1,959.99
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$20
Record
51%
847-798 (1645)
Stickman22CTRInvested
$1,224.96
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$12.5
Record
52%
1677-1555 (3232)
Invested
$750.2
Value
$739.5
PnL
-$17.95
Record
56%
2173-1716 (3889)
Invested
$342.25
Value
$345.6
PnL
+$3.36
Record
60%
1191-785 (1976)
Invested
$2.76
Value
$2.76
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
11446-10800 (22246)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.