Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold FURIA, while the market favors TheMongolz (100%). 8 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)

8 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (42%) · FURIA at 0.1¢ · $69K held · ends Nov 4

FURIA<1¢TheMongolz>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

FURIA

Consensus Traders

FURIA 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$68.8K

Combined PnL

$3.7K

Smart Money Entry

44.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidFURIA at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

8 of 19 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors TheMongolz 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FURIA0%

TheMongolz100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FURIA8 traders

Total Value$54.8K

Total Shares74,683

Combined PnL+$21.1K

TheMongolz11 traders

Total Value$13.9K

Total Shares59,338

Combined PnL$-17.3K

FURIA — 42%TheMongolz — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on FURIA) and the top 1000 (19 on TheMongolz) disagree here.

whaleTheMongolz 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpFURIA 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTheMongolz 64% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedFURIA 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000TheMongolz 58% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	FURIAavg 46¢	$53.0K	$40.6K	+$16.2K	56% 226-181 (407)
0X 0x387f3602454Bb7dC5FB3938aEfb2D12F70232095-1777148824538CTR	FURIAavg 45¢	$5.5K	$8.8K	+$3.3K	56% 50-40 (90)
forsenxd	TheMongolzavg 54.3¢	$16.6K	$3.9K	$-5.1K	53% 1102-966 (2068)
WI Wiretransferxyz	TheMongolzavg 53¢	$8.8K	$3.9K	$-4.9K	53% 770-685 (1455)
LO lossxCTR	FURIAavg 45.8¢	$1.4K	$2.3K	+$827.12	59% 302-207 (509)
LI LinkE5	TheMongolzavg 56.2¢	$4.4K	$1.8K	$-2.6K	47% 720-805 (1525)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	FURIAavg 47.1¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$612.5	53% 1312-1177 (2489)
BA Babooou	TheMongolzavg 54¢	$3.2K	$1.4K	$-1.9K	51% 225-217 (442)
Reformedx	TheMongolzavg 54¢	$2.2K	$919.99	$-1.2K	51% 857-824 (1681)
YI yishiwuchengCTR	FURIAavg 16.7¢	$933.8	$901.2	-$32.6	50% 1896-1874 (3770)
HL HLEbritni	TheMongolzavg 55.4¢	$714.97	$689.98	-$24.99	46% 17-20 (37)
relativesignificance	TheMongolzavg 54.9¢	$1.6K	$681.35	-$909.42	57% 143-106 (249)
Harrydubois	TheMongolzavg 53¢	$901	$391	-$510	44% 172-215 (387)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	FURIAavg 46¢	$184	$288	+$104	51% 1781-1704 (3485)
DumplingBMFCTR	FURIAavg 46¢	$116.03	$192.97	+$76.93	68% 1849-855 (2704)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	TheMongolzavg 54.5¢	$295.6	$154.87	-$140.73	50% 36322-35805 (72127)
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 54.5¢	$269.26	$113.64	-$155.62
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 46¢	$26.34	$41.23	+$14.89
DA darkumbreon88	TheMongolzavg 54¢	$258.75	$123.98	-$134.77	64% 1890-1046 (2936)
vtcchampion52<$100	TheMongolzavg 48.2¢	$19.3	$39.98	-$9.4	49% 1143-1211 (2354)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	TheMongolzavg 56.2¢	$58.47	$27.45	-$31.02	50% 20688-20949 (41637)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	FURIAavg 41.3¢	$26.39	$5.83	-$23.57	52% 8571-7810 (16381)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

FURIA

Invested

$53,020.39

Value

$40.6K

PnL

+$16.2K

Record

56%

226-181 (407)

0x387f3602454Bb7dC5FB3938aEfb2D12F70232095-1777148824538CTR

FURIA

Invested

$5,512.64

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

56%

50-40 (90)

forsenxd

TheMongolz

Invested

$16,637.47

Value

$3.9K

PnL

$-5.1K

Record

53%

1102-966 (2068)

Wiretransferxyz

TheMongolz

Invested

$8,811.6

Value

$3.9K

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

53%

770-685 (1455)

lossxCTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,445.23

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$827.12

Record

59%

302-207 (509)

LinkE5

TheMongolz

Invested

$4,373.59

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

47%

720-805 (1525)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,155.08

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$612.5

Record

53%

1312-1177 (2489)

Babooou

TheMongolz

Invested

$3,239.97

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

51%

225-217 (442)

Reformedx

TheMongolz

Invested

$2,159.97

Value

$919.99

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

51%

857-824 (1681)

yishiwuchengCTR

FURIA

Invested

$933.8

Value

$901.2

PnL

-$32.6

Record

50%

1896-1874 (3770)

HLEbritni

TheMongolz

Invested

$714.97

Value

$689.98

PnL

-$24.99

Record

46%

17-20 (37)

relativesignificance

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,590.77

Value

$681.35

PnL

-$909.42

Record

57%

143-106 (249)

Harrydubois

TheMongolz

Invested

$901

Value

$391

PnL

-$510

Record

44%

172-215 (387)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

FURIA

Invested

$184

Value

$288

PnL

+$104

Record

51%

1781-1704 (3485)

DumplingBMFCTR

FURIA

Invested

$116.03

Value

$192.97

PnL

+$76.93

Record

68%

1849-855 (2704)

SnakeBallARB<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$295.6

Value

$154.87

PnL

-$140.73

Record

50%

36322-35805 (72127)

Both legs:

TheMongolz$269.2654.5¢-$155.62

FURIA$26.3446¢+$14.89

darkumbreon88

TheMongolz

Invested

$258.75

Value

$123.98

PnL

-$134.77

Record

64%

1890-1046 (2936)

vtcchampion52<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$19.3

Value

$39.98

PnL

-$9.4

Record

49%

1143-1211 (2354)

omnibus-076daa<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$58.47

Value

$27.45

PnL

-$31.02

Record

50%

20688-20949 (41637)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

FURIA

Invested

$26.39

Value

$5.83

PnL

-$23.57

Record

52%

8571-7810 (16381)

Research grade

AvoidFURIA at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

8 of 19 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors TheMongolz 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on FURIA) and the top 1000 (19 on TheMongolz) disagree here.

whaleTheMongolz 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpFURIA 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTheMongolz 64% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedFURIA 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000TheMongolz 58% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FURIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.