Counter-Strike: magic vs BIG - Map 2 Winner

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold BIG (73%) · BIG at 89¢ · $33K held · ends Oct 27

magic12¢BIG88¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BIG

Consensus Traders

BIG 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.9K

Combined PnL

$486.49

Smart Money Entry

68.5¢ → 88.5¢

+29% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralBIG at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BIG

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

magic12%

BIG89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BIG8 traders

Total Value$27.5K

Total Shares32,096

Combined PnL+$707.59

magic3 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares9,990

Combined PnL-$221.1

BIG — 73%magic — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	BIGavg 65.8¢	$9.2K	$9.6K	+$328.39	54% 55311-47349 (102660)
PN pnhct	BIGavg 72.2¢	$8.0K	$7.8K	-$143.39	54% 433-372 (805)
AA aaaa298	BIGavg 75.1¢	$5.6K	$6.6K	+$998.05	58% 722-519 (1241)
IV Ivan948CTR	magicavg 43.6¢	$4.1K	$3.8K	-$285.85	44% 44-55 (99)
SI SineNooneEI	BIGavg 59¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$351.5	55% 909-748 (1657)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	BIGavg 62.2¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$177.1	52% 13467-12324 (25791)
└ BIG leg	BIGavg 62.2¢	$805.12	$834.75	+$29.63
└ magic leg	magicavg 24.8¢	$342.86	$490.32	+$147.47
cs2.quant	BIGavg 65.3¢	$1,000	$988.32	-$11.68	55% 67-54 (121)
CR Crazyboy77	BIGavg 56¢	$559.99	$485	-$75	51% 167-161 (328)
AS astapzippo	BIGavg 53.6¢	$295	$302.5	+$7.5	56% 2100-1638 (3738)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	magicavg 41.6¢	$242.2	$299.65	+$57.45	49% 18385-18813 (37198)
poshposh	BIGavg 75.2¢	$113.37	$68.6	-$44.78	60% 9075-5994 (15069)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	magicavg 41¢	$28.54	$35.85	+$7.31	50% 24824-24520 (49344)

RN1

BIG

Invested

$9,241.78

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$328.39

Record

54%

55311-47349 (102660)

pnhct

BIG

Invested

$7,971.82

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$143.39

Record

54%

433-372 (805)

aaaa298

BIG

Invested

$5,604.23

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$998.05

Record

58%

722-519 (1241)

Ivan948CTR

magic

Invested

$4,067.77

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$285.85

Record

44%

44-55 (99)

SineNooneEI

BIG

Invested

$1,975.08

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$351.5

Record

55%

909-748 (1657)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

BIG

Invested

$1,147.97

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$177.1

Record

52%

13467-12324 (25791)

Both legs:

BIG$805.1262.2¢+$29.63

magic$342.8624.8¢+$147.47

cs2.quant

BIG

Invested

$1,000

Value

$988.32

PnL

-$11.68

Record

55%

67-54 (121)

Crazyboy77

BIG

Invested

$559.99

Value

$485

PnL

-$75

Record

51%

167-161 (328)

astapzippo

BIG

Invested

$295

Value

$302.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

56%

2100-1638 (3738)

omnibus-076daaCTR

magic

Invested

$242.2

Value

$299.65

PnL

+$57.45

Record

49%

18385-18813 (37198)

poshposh

BIG

Invested

$113.37

Value

$68.6

PnL

-$44.78

Record

60%

9075-5994 (15069)

sentrioCTR<$100

magic

Invested

$28.54

Value

$35.85

PnL

+$7.31

Record

50%

24824-24520 (49344)

Research grade

NeutralBIG at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

BIG

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BIG wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.