Counter-Strike: MEIA NOITE vs BORRACHEIROS (BO3) - CCT South America Group Stage

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold MEIA NOITE (50%) · MEIA NOITE at 59¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 10

MEIA NOITE59¢BORRACHEIROS41¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MEIA NOITE

Consensus Traders

MEIA NOITE 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$25.04

Smart Money Entry

57.6¢ → 59¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralMEIA NOITE at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MEIA NOITE

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

MEIA NOITE59%

BORRACHEIROS41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MEIA NOITE2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,967

Combined PnL+$27.5

BORRACHEIROS2 traders

Total Value$235.43

Total Shares532

Combined PnL-$2.46

MEIA NOITE — 50%BORRACHEIROS — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	MEIA NOITEavg 57.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$25.02	53% 120-105 (225)
PU purplegattoCTR	BORRACHEIROSavg 42¢	$200.34	$195.57	-$4.77	69% 2572-1165 (3737)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	BORRACHEIROSavg 42.1¢	$51.9	$39.86	+$2.31	48% 409-445 (854)
BI biying88888<$100	MEIA NOITEavg 51¢	$15.81	$18.29	+$2.48	27% 62-168 (230)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

MEIA NOITE

Invested

$1,117.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$25.02

Record

53%

120-105 (225)

purplegattoCTR

BORRACHEIROS

Invested

$200.34

Value

$195.57

PnL

-$4.77

Record

69%

2572-1165 (3737)

Pan9XCTR<$100

BORRACHEIROS

Invested

$51.9

Value

$39.86

PnL

+$2.31

Record

48%

409-445 (854)

biying88888<$100

MEIA NOITE

Invested

$15.81

Value

$18.29

PnL

+$2.48

Record

27%

62-168 (230)

Research grade

NeutralMEIA NOITE at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

MEIA NOITE

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MEIA NOITE wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.