Counter-Strike: megoshort vs Falcons Force (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #13 Group B

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold megoshort (40%) · megoshort at 74¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 2

megoshort74¢Falcons Force26¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

megoshort

Consensus Traders

megoshort 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$49.41

Smart Money Entry

47.2¢ → 74¢

+57% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

Neutralmegoshort at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

megoshort

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

megoshort74%

Falcons Force26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

megoshort4 traders

Total Value$804.19

Total Shares1,279

Combined PnL+$157.84

Falcons Force6 traders

Total Value$288.99

Total Shares820

Combined PnL-$108.43

megoshort — 40%Falcons Force — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on megoshort. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons Force 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpmegoshort 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFalcons Force 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Falcons Force 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboi	megoshortavg 46.6¢	$223.28	$331.36	+$108.08	47% 10054-11163 (21217)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	megoshortavg 57.6¢	$324.82	$319.9	-$4.93	54% 2550-2185 (4735)
└ megoshort leg	megoshortavg 57.6¢	$185.3	$249.49	+$64.19
└ Falcons Force leg	Falcons Forceavg 44.6¢	$139.53	$70.4	-$69.12
daddyradar	megoshortavg 46¢	$275.64	$311.59	+$35.95	66% 94-49 (143)
SW swiftFoxx	megoshortavg 46.7¢	$120.9	$134.54	+$13.64	70% 55-24 (79)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Falcons Forceavg 52.9¢	$133.95	$121.52	-$12.42	59% 30975-21694 (52669)
0X 0x4f2CTR	Falcons Forceavg 43.9¢	$153.25	$89.04	-$64.21	52% 9241-8624 (17865)
poshposhCTR<$100	Falcons Forceavg 45.9¢	$53.68	$30.99	-$22.69	58% 11432-8282 (19714)
CI cigarettes<$100	megoshortavg 79¢	$26.52	$26.69	+$0.17	56% 18370-14706 (33076)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Falcons Forceavg 54¢	$21.9	$19.47	-$2.43	45% 12902-15667 (28569)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR<$100	Falcons Forceavg 60¢	$24	$19	-$5	53% 139-122 (261)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Falcons Forceavg 42.8¢	$10.65	$8.98	-$1.68	46% 7932-9255 (17187)

topdogbigboi

megoshort

Invested

$223.28

Value

$331.36

PnL

+$108.08

Record

47%

10054-11163 (21217)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

megoshort

Invested

$324.82

Value

$319.9

PnL

-$4.93

Record

54%

2550-2185 (4735)

Both legs:

megoshort$185.357.6¢+$64.19

Falcons Force$139.5344.6¢-$69.12

daddyradar

megoshort

Invested

$275.64

Value

$311.59

PnL

+$35.95

Record

66%

94-49 (143)

swiftFoxx

megoshort

Invested

$120.9

Value

$134.54

PnL

+$13.64

Record

70%

55-24 (79)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Falcons Force

Invested

$133.95

Value

$121.52

PnL

-$12.42

Record

59%

30975-21694 (52669)

0x4f2CTR

Falcons Force

Invested

$153.25

Value

$89.04

PnL

-$64.21

Record

52%

9241-8624 (17865)

poshposhCTR<$100

Falcons Force

Invested

$53.68

Value

$30.99

PnL

-$22.69

Record

58%

11432-8282 (19714)

cigarettes<$100

megoshort

Invested

$26.52

Value

$26.69

PnL

+$0.17

Record

56%

18370-14706 (33076)

suntoriCTR<$100

Falcons Force

Invested

$21.9

Value

$19.47

PnL

-$2.43

Record

45%

12902-15667 (28569)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR<$100

Falcons Force

Invested

$24

Value

$19

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

139-122 (261)

lryyyCTR<$100

Falcons Force

Invested

$10.65

Value

$8.98

PnL

-$1.68

Record

46%

7932-9255 (17187)

Research grade

Neutralmegoshort at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

megoshort

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on megoshort. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons Force 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpmegoshort 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFalcons Force 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Falcons Force 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that megoshort wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.