Counter-Strike: maybe vs MASONIC - Map 1 Winner
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold MASONIC (50%) · MASONIC at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 9
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Neutral
MASONIC
8
MASONIC 50%
$1.7K
$435.06
72.1¢ → 100¢
+39% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralMASONIC at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BillBenter2026 | MASONICavg 72.7¢ | $785.81 | $1.1K | +$294.04 | 57% 20332-15125 (35457) |
XJ xjansfsaCTR | maybeavg 20.1¢ | $200.64 | $480 | +$279.36 | 55% 27-22 (49) |
PA panpidaras1 | MASONICavg 66.9¢ | $106.55 | $82.77 | -$23.78 | 47% 337-383 (720) |
 Future-Tarot-Trader<$100 | MASONICavg 74.9¢ | $10.49 | $13.99 | +$3.5 | 64% 1350-768 (2118) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | MASONICavg 75.6¢ | $10.48 | $13.86 | +$3.38 | 65% 25734-13843 (39577) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | maybeavg 21.8¢ | $2.18 | $4.8 | +$2.62 | 53% 1651-1490 (3141) |
31 319113331313111CTR | maybeavg 31.8¢ | $544.63 | $0.09 | -$116.31 | 58% 517-377 (894) |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100 | maybeavg 11.6¢ | $7.79 | $0.03 | -$7.76 | 46% 33770-39445 (73215) |
Invested
$785.81
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$294.04
Record
57%
20332-15125 (35457)
Invested
$200.64
Value
$480
PnL
+$279.36
Record
55%
27-22 (49)
Invested
$106.55
Value
$82.77
PnL
-$23.78
Record
47%
337-383 (720)
Future-Tarot-Trader<$100Invested
$10.49
Value
$13.99
PnL
+$3.5
Record
64%
1350-768 (2118)
Invested
$10.48
Value
$13.86
PnL
+$3.38
Record
65%
25734-13843 (39577)
Invested
$2.18
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$2.62
Record
53%
1651-1490 (3141)
Invested
$544.63
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$116.31
Record
58%
517-377 (894)
Invested
$7.79
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$7.76
Record
46%
33770-39445 (73215)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.