Counter-Strike: maybe vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series Play-In

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold MASONIC (33%) · MASONIC at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 9

maybe45¢MASONIC55¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MASONIC

Consensus Traders

MASONIC 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$257.17

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 55.5¢

-13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralMASONIC at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MASONIC

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

maybe45%

MASONIC56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MASONIC4 traders

Total Value$793.84

Total Shares1,380

Combined PnL-$102.22

maybe8 traders

Total Value$309.62

Total Shares1,086

Combined PnL-$154.95

MASONIC — 33%maybe — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BillBenter2026	MASONICavg 65.5¢	$777.29	$670.82	-$106.47	57% 20332-15125 (35457)
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	maybeavg 35.3¢	$359.89	$290.94	-$68.95	58% 517-377 (894)
└ maybe leg	maybeavg 35.3¢	$234.31	$149.16	-$85.15
└ MASONIC leg	MASONICavg 68.6¢	$125.58	$141.78	+$16.2
alpheclabs2CTR	maybeavg 47¢	$286.7	$137.25	-$149.45	47% 1777-1989 (3766)
BI biying88888	MASONICavg 54.2¢	$94.93	$108.5	+$5.25	46% 338-403 (741)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	maybeavg 47.8¢	$97.5	$45.92	-$49.05	47% 255-289 (544)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	maybeavg 25.4¢	$30.07	$43.96	+$13.89	46% 33777-39454 (73231)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	maybeavg 23¢	$15.88	$30.03	+$14.15	47% 8797-9986 (18783)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	maybeavg 22.5¢	$10.7	$20.7	+$10	50% 24127-24236 (48363)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	maybeavg 42.8¢	$16.57	$16.84	+$0.27	47% 2267-2575 (4842)
PA panpidaras1CTR<$100	maybeavg 28¢	$8.4	$12.75	+$4.35	47% 337-383 (720)
LO lonmi2511<$100	MASONICavg 79.8¢	$11.28	$10	-$1.28	53% 1651-1490 (3141)
PA Pan9X<$100	MASONICavg 53¢	$4.24	$4.52	+$0.28	53% 28380-25663 (54043)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	maybeavg 26¢	$1.3	$2.18	+$0.87	52% 6198-5722 (11920)

BillBenter2026

MASONIC

Invested

$777.29

Value

$670.82

PnL

-$106.47

Record

57%

20332-15125 (35457)

319113331313111ARB<$100

maybe

Invested

$359.89

Value

$290.94

PnL

-$68.95

Record

58%

517-377 (894)

Both legs:

maybe$234.3135.3¢-$85.15

MASONIC$125.5868.6¢+$16.2

alpheclabs2CTR

maybe

Invested

$286.7

Value

$137.25

PnL

-$149.45

Record

47%

1777-1989 (3766)

biying88888

MASONIC

Invested

$94.93

Value

$108.5

PnL

+$5.25

Record

46%

338-403 (741)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

maybe

Invested

$97.5

Value

$45.92

PnL

-$49.05

Record

47%

255-289 (544)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

maybe

Invested

$30.07

Value

$43.96

PnL

+$13.89

Record

46%

33777-39454 (73231)

GaditimaCTR<$100

maybe

Invested

$15.88

Value

$30.03

PnL

+$14.15

Record

47%

8797-9986 (18783)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

maybe

Invested

$10.7

Value

$20.7

PnL

+$10

Record

50%

24127-24236 (48363)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

maybe

Invested

$16.57

Value

$16.84

PnL

+$0.27

Record

47%

2267-2575 (4842)

panpidaras1CTR<$100

maybe

Invested

$8.4

Value

$12.75

PnL

+$4.35

Record

47%

337-383 (720)

lonmi2511<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$11.28

Value

$10

PnL

-$1.28

Record

53%

1651-1490 (3141)

Pan9X<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$4.24

Value

$4.52

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

28380-25663 (54043)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

maybe

Invested

$1.3

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$0.87

Record

52%

6198-5722 (11920)

Research grade

NeutralMASONIC at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

MASONIC

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MASONIC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.