Counter-Strike: maybe vs Lunacy Team - Map 2 Winner

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold maybe (83%) · maybe at 70¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

maybe70¢Lunacy Team30¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

maybe

Consensus Traders

maybe 83%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$683.94

Smart Money Entry

45¢ → 69.5¢

+54% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Neutralmaybe at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

maybe

5 of 6 top traders (83%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

maybe70%

Lunacy Team31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

maybe5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,459

Combined PnL+$685.44

Lunacy Team1 trader

Total Value$46.5

Total Shares100

Combined PnL-$1.5

maybe — 83%Lunacy Team — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	maybeavg 46¢	$1.7K	$2.3K	+$615.38	59% 13-9 (22)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Lunacy Teamavg 65.3¢	$2.0K	$719.46	-$76.16	64% 93-53 (146)
└ maybe leg	maybeavg 40.8¢	$277.94	$401.78	+$139.57
└ Lunacy Team leg	Lunacy Teamavg 65.3¢	$506.22	$317.68	-$215.74
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	maybeavg 58.9¢	$2.7K	$398.48	-$60.25	57% 104-80 (184)
└ maybe leg	maybeavg 58.9¢	$265.08	$265.61	+$89.56
└ Lunacy Team leg	Lunacy Teamavg 56.5¢	$183.19	$132.87	-$149.81
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Lunacy Teamavg 50¢	$262.5	$259.88	-$2.63	54% 428-364 (792)
└ Lunacy Team leg	Lunacy Teamavg 50¢	$131.25	$165.38	+$34.13
└ maybe leg	maybeavg 50¢	$131.25	$94.5	-$36.75
TO topdogbigboi	maybeavg 38.7¢	$184.08	$222.11	+$38.03	37% 527-909 (1436)
poshposhARB<$100	maybeavg 52.6¢	$181.05	$123.11	-$57.94	47% 509-574 (1083)
└ Lunacy Team leg	Lunacy Teamavg 66.5¢	$71.42	$90.8	+$19.37
└ maybe leg	maybeavg 52.6¢	$109.63	$32.32	-$77.31
SH shiifoo	maybeavg 41.2¢	$143.5	$98.19	-$10.07	62% 1362-827 (2189)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Lunacy Teamavg 48¢	$48	$46.5	-$1.5	32% 294-619 (913)
Future-Tarot-Trader	maybeavg 32.3¢	$169.17	$37.09	+$39.72	49% 83-88 (171)
LR lryyy<$100	maybeavg 55¢	$29.41	$31.8	+$2.39	44% 375-478 (853)

JohnLKellyJr

maybe

Invested

$1,722.25

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$615.38

Record

59%

13-9 (22)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Lunacy Team

Invested

$1,954.06

Value

$719.46

PnL

-$76.16

Record

64%

93-53 (146)

Both legs:

maybe$277.9440.8¢+$139.57

Lunacy Team$506.2265.3¢-$215.74

319113331313111ARB<$100

maybe

Invested

$2,723.35

Value

$398.48

PnL

-$60.25

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

Both legs:

maybe$265.0858.9¢+$89.56

Lunacy Team$183.1956.5¢-$149.81

NotJumpARB<$100

Lunacy Team

Invested

$262.5

Value

$259.88

PnL

-$2.63

Record

54%

428-364 (792)

Both legs:

Lunacy Team$131.2550¢+$34.13

maybe$131.2550¢-$36.75

topdogbigboi

maybe

Invested

$184.08

Value

$222.11

PnL

+$38.03

Record

37%

527-909 (1436)

poshposhARB<$100

maybe

Invested

$181.05

Value

$123.11

PnL

-$57.94

Record

47%

509-574 (1083)

Both legs:

Lunacy Team$71.4266.5¢+$19.37

maybe$109.6352.6¢-$77.31

shiifoo

maybe

Invested

$143.5

Value

$98.19

PnL

-$10.07

Record

62%

1362-827 (2189)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Lunacy Team

Invested

$48

Value

$46.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

32%

294-619 (913)

Future-Tarot-Trader

maybe

Invested

$169.17

Value

$37.09

PnL

+$39.72

Record

49%

83-88 (171)

lryyy<$100

maybe

Invested

$29.41

Value

$31.8

PnL

+$2.39

Record

44%

375-478 (853)

Research grade

Neutralmaybe at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

maybe

5 of 6 top traders (83%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that maybe wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.