Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs maybe (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #12 Group B

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold maybe (100%) · maybe at 83¢ · $927 held · ends Nov 12

LPH Gaming18¢maybe82¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

maybe

Consensus Traders

maybe 100%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$926.72

Combined PnL

$49.29

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 82.5¢

+33% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Neutralmaybe at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

maybe

5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LPH Gaming18%

maybe83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

maybe5 traders

Total Value$272.02

Total Shares359

Combined PnL+$49.29

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	LPH Gamingavg 39.2¢	$376.58	$325.25	-$51.33	57% 110-82 (192)
└ maybe leg	maybeavg 69.7¢	$180.65	$187.96	+$7.31
└ LPH Gaming leg	LPH Gamingavg 39.2¢	$195.93	$137.29	-$58.64
NO NotJumpARB<$100	maybeavg 50¢	$262.5	$257.25	-$5.25	54% 439-373 (812)
└ maybe leg	maybeavg 50¢	$131.25	$199.5	+$68.25
└ LPH Gaming leg	LPH Gamingavg 50¢	$131.25	$57.75	-$73.5
GA Gaditima	maybeavg 51¢	$81	$120.71	+$39.71	47% 160-184 (344)
38 38791873984189	maybeavg 76.6¢	$116.83	$115.14	-$1.69	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	LPH Gamingavg 47.9¢	$87.75	$72.21	-$15.55	65% 101-54 (155)
└ maybe leg	maybeavg 53.2¢	$33.02	$49.95	+$16.93
└ LPH Gaming leg	LPH Gamingavg 47.9¢	$54.74	$22.26	-$32.48
PA Pan9X<$100	maybeavg 52.3¢	$13.08	$19	+$5.92	49% 1072-1133 (2205)
SU suntori<$100	maybeavg 54¢	$9.52	$13.4	+$3.88	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	maybeavg 46¢	$2.3	$3.78	+$1.48	37% 534-922 (1456)

319113331313111ARB<$100

LPH Gaming

Invested

$376.58

Value

$325.25

PnL

-$51.33

Record

57%

110-82 (192)

Both legs:

maybe$180.6569.7¢+$7.31

LPH Gaming$195.9339.2¢-$58.64

NotJumpARB<$100

maybe

Invested

$262.5

Value

$257.25

PnL

-$5.25

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

Both legs:

maybe$131.2550¢+$68.25

LPH Gaming$131.2550¢-$73.5

Gaditima

maybe

Invested

$81

Value

$120.71

PnL

+$39.71

Record

47%

160-184 (344)

38791873984189

maybe

Invested

$116.83

Value

$115.14

PnL

-$1.69

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

LPH Gaming

Invested

$87.75

Value

$72.21

PnL

-$15.55

Record

65%

101-54 (155)

Both legs:

maybe$33.0253.2¢+$16.93

LPH Gaming$54.7447.9¢-$32.48

Pan9X<$100

maybe

Invested

$13.08

Value

$19

PnL

+$5.92

Record

49%

1072-1133 (2205)

suntori<$100

maybe

Invested

$9.52

Value

$13.4

PnL

+$3.88

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

topdogbigboi<$100

maybe

Invested

$2.3

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$1.48

Record

37%

534-922 (1456)

Research grade

Neutralmaybe at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

maybe

5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that maybe wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.