Counter-Strike: Low Cortisol vs Turma do Pagode - Map 1 Winner

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Low Cortisol (80%) · Low Cortisol at 50¢ · $553 held · ends Oct 31

Low Cortisol50¢Turma do Pagode50¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Low Cortisol

Consensus Traders

Low Cortisol 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$553.45

Combined PnL

-$131.85

Smart Money Entry

77.6¢ → 50¢

-36% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralLow Cortisol at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Low Cortisol

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Low Cortisol50%

Turma do Pagode50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Low Cortisol4 traders

Total Value$285.57

Total Shares536

Combined PnL-$143.28

Turma do Pagode1 trader

Total Value$47.03

Total Shares94

Combined PnL+$11.43

Low Cortisol — 80%Turma do Pagode — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Low Cortisol. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLow Cortisol 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpLow Cortisol 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrLow Cortisol 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Low Cortisol 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Low Cortisolavg 63.6¢	$195.12	$220.84	+$25.72	54% 2417-2096 (4513)
└ Turma do Pagode leg	Turma do Pagodeavg 26.2¢	$60.2	$114.84	+$54.64
└ Low Cortisol leg	Low Cortisolavg 63.6¢	$134.93	$106	-$28.92
0X 0x4f2	Low Cortisolavg 61.7¢	$169.95	$137.78	-$32.17	52% 9159-8551 (17710)
LO looppau	Low Cortisolavg 99.9¢	$187.79	$93.99	-$93.8	99% 10942-66 (11008)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Turma do Pagodeavg 37.9¢	$35.6	$47.03	+$11.43	59% 30487-21198 (51685)
AN anon122<$100	Low Cortisolavg 85.5¢	$29.78	$34.82	+$5.04	43% 30-39 (69)
TE testBruno2<$100	Low Cortisolavg 75.8¢	$47.93	$18.99	-$22.33	58% 877-633 (1510)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Low Cortisol

Invested

$195.12

Value

$220.84

PnL

+$25.72

Record

54%

2417-2096 (4513)

Both legs:

Turma do Pagode$60.226.2¢+$54.64

Low Cortisol$134.9363.6¢-$28.92

0x4f2

Low Cortisol

Invested

$169.95

Value

$137.78

PnL

-$32.17

Record

52%

9159-8551 (17710)

looppau

Low Cortisol

Invested

$187.79

Value

$93.99

PnL

-$93.8

Record

99%

10942-66 (11008)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$35.6

Value

$47.03

PnL

+$11.43

Record

59%

30487-21198 (51685)

anon122<$100

Low Cortisol

Invested

$29.78

Value

$34.82

PnL

+$5.04

Record

43%

30-39 (69)

testBruno2<$100

Low Cortisol

Invested

$47.93

Value

$18.99

PnL

-$22.33

Record

58%

877-633 (1510)

Research grade

NeutralLow Cortisol at 50%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Low Cortisol

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Low Cortisol. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLow Cortisol 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpLow Cortisol 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrLow Cortisol 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Low Cortisol 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Low Cortisol wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.