Counter-Strike: Low Cortisol vs Turma do Pagode (BO3) - Gamers Club Masters Group A

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Low Cortisol (43%) · Low Cortisol at 53¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31

Low Cortisol53¢Turma do Pagode47¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Low Cortisol

Consensus Traders

Low Cortisol 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$90.65

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 52.5¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLow Cortisol at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Low Cortisol

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Low Cortisol53%

Turma do Pagode48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Low Cortisol3 traders

Total Value$396.77

Total Shares564

Combined PnL+$71.07

Turma do Pagode4 traders

Total Value$306.96

Total Shares536

Combined PnL+$19.58

Low Cortisol — 43%Turma do Pagode — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Low Cortisolavg 55.2¢	$398.89	$412.79	+$13.9	54% 2413-2095 (4508)
└ Low Cortisol leg	Low Cortisolavg 55.2¢	$225.64	$235.08	+$9.44
└ Turma do Pagode leg	Turma do Pagodeavg 41.4¢	$173.25	$177.72	+$4.46
0X 0x4f2	Low Cortisolavg 52.8¢	$229.68	$264.81	+$35.12	52% 9158-8549 (17707)
AS astapzippoCTR	Turma do Pagodeavg 62¢	$170.48	$193.85	+$23.37	56% 2151-1702 (3853)
poshposh	Low Cortisolavg 42¢	$77.21	$118.09	+$40.88	59% 10191-7178 (17369)
GT gt7238CTR<$100	Turma do Pagodeavg 58¢	$49.3	$59.93	+$10.63	45% 616-754 (1370)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Turma do Pagodeavg 38.2¢	$63.53	$49.06	-$14.47	59% 30480-21187 (51667)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Low Cortisolavg 40¢	$18.81	$13.88	-$4.93	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Turma do Pagodeavg 42¢	$4.07	$4.12	+$0.05	49% 7982-8322 (16304)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Low Cortisol

Invested

$398.89

Value

$412.79

PnL

+$13.9

Record

54%

2413-2095 (4508)

Both legs:

Low Cortisol$225.6455.2¢+$9.44

Turma do Pagode$173.2541.4¢+$4.46

0x4f2

Low Cortisol

Invested

$229.68

Value

$264.81

PnL

+$35.12

Record

52%

9158-8549 (17707)

astapzippoCTR

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$170.48

Value

$193.85

PnL

+$23.37

Record

56%

2151-1702 (3853)

poshposh

Low Cortisol

Invested

$77.21

Value

$118.09

PnL

+$40.88

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

gt7238CTR<$100

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$49.3

Value

$59.93

PnL

+$10.63

Record

45%

616-754 (1370)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$63.53

Value

$49.06

PnL

-$14.47

Record

59%

30480-21187 (51667)

LuckyLoo<$100

Low Cortisol

Invested

$18.81

Value

$13.88

PnL

-$4.93

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$4.07

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

Research grade

NeutralLow Cortisol at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Low Cortisol

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Low Cortisol wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.