Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Legacy (25%) · Legacy at 57¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Legacy
4
Legacy 25%
$4.4K
$552.36
Research grade
NeutralLegacy at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reformedx | Legacyavg 50.3¢ | $3.0K | $3.4K | +$397.18 | 52% 769-714 (1483) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | TheMongolzavg 36.6¢ | $610.47 | $716.79 | +$106.32 | 55% 124-100 (224) |
TR TrippleEXCTR | TheMongolzavg 36¢ | $227.69 | $271.96 | +$44.27 | 57% 280-208 (488) |
 relativesignificanceCTR<$100 | TheMongolzavg 35¢ | $20.05 | $24.63 | +$4.58 | 59% 86-61 (147) |
ReformedxInvested
$2,990.72
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$397.18
Record
52%
769-714 (1483)
Invested
$610.47
Value
$716.79
PnL
+$106.32
Record
55%
124-100 (224)
Invested
$227.69
Value
$271.96
PnL
+$44.27
Record
57%
280-208 (488)
relativesignificanceCTR<$100Invested
$20.05
Value
$24.63
PnL
+$4.58
Record
59%
86-61 (147)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.