Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (55%) · FURIA at 70¢ · $56K held · ends Nov 11

Legacy31¢FURIA69¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FURIA

Consensus Traders

FURIA 55%

Total Value

$55.6K

Combined PnL

-$15.1

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 69.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Legacy31%

FURIA70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FURIA6 traders

Total Value$39.3K

Total Shares56,517

Combined PnL-$141.49

Legacy5 traders

Total Value$16.3K

Total Shares53,430

Combined PnL+$126.38

FURIA — 55%Legacy — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

147h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFURIA 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000FURIA 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WI Wiretransferxyz	FURIAavg 70¢	$31.5K	$31.3K	-$225	53% 819-718 (1537)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Legacyavg 30¢	$10.1K	$10.3K	+$168.82	54% 1500-1277 (2777)
RA Rayaya	FURIAavg 69¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$25	61% 1253-807 (2060)
Stickman22	FURIAavg 68.4¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$64.56	52% 1888-1767 (3655)
KateBollingerCTR	Legacyavg 30¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$50	68% 1894-905 (2799)
relativesignificanceCTR	Legacyavg 31.4¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$78.11	57% 160-122 (282)
IW iWasEnough	FURIAavg 70¢	$943.65	$936.91	-$6.74	51% 12924-12461 (25385)
GOLDCRYPT12CTR	Legacyavg 32¢	$320	$305	-$15	51% 1221-1177 (2398)
OM omnibus-076daa	FURIAavg 70¢	$109.58	$108.8	-$0.78	50% 24101-24191 (48292)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Legacyavg 31.1¢	$42.23	$41.48	+$0.68	48% 8395-8930 (17325)
GH ghorrock<$100	FURIAavg 68.6¢	$95.23	$31.21	+$1.48	57% 25439-18984 (44423)

Wiretransferxyz

FURIA

Invested

$31,500

Value

$31.3K

PnL

-$225

Record

53%

819-718 (1537)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Legacy

Invested

$10,129.03

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$168.82

Record

54%

1500-1277 (2777)

Rayaya

FURIA

Invested

$3,449.95

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$25

Record

61%

1253-807 (2060)

Stickman22

FURIA

Invested

$3,398.91

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$64.56

Record

52%

1888-1767 (3655)

KateBollingerCTR

Legacy

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$50

Record

68%

1894-905 (2799)

relativesignificanceCTR

Legacy

Invested

$2,679.85

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$78.11

Record

57%

160-122 (282)

iWasEnough

FURIA

Invested

$943.65

Value

$936.91

PnL

-$6.74

Record

51%

12924-12461 (25385)

GOLDCRYPT12CTR

Legacy

Invested

$320

Value

$305

PnL

-$15

Record

51%

1221-1177 (2398)

omnibus-076daa

FURIA

Invested

$109.58

Value

$108.8

PnL

-$0.78

Record

50%

24101-24191 (48292)

OddstormCTR<$100

Legacy

Invested

$42.23

Value

$41.48

PnL

+$0.68

Record

48%

8395-8930 (17325)

ghorrock<$100

FURIA

Invested

$95.23

Value

$31.21

PnL

+$1.48

Record

57%

25439-18984 (44423)

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

147h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFURIA 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000FURIA 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FURIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.