Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Legacy, while the market favors Team Falcons (68%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Legacy (60%) · Legacy at 33¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Legacy
5
Legacy 60%
$10.5K
-$214.81
33¢ → 32.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLegacy at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Team Falcons 68%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Legacy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | Legacyavg 33¢ | $7.9K | $7.7K | -$243.13 | 55% 138-115 (253) |
 VeryLucky888 | Team Falconsavg 66.7¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$39.23 | 52% 497-452 (949) |
0X 0xedrtgfBdecfrhyeerdCTR | Legacyavg 33¢ | $500 | $484.85 | -$15.15 | 3% 1-34 (35) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR | Legacyavg 32¢ | $256 | $260 | +$4 | 15% 150-841 (991) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Team Falconsavg 67¢ | $16.16 | $16.4 | +$0.24 | 55% 680-552 (1232) |
Invested
$7,907.7
Value
$7.7K
PnL
-$243.13
Record
55%
138-115 (253)
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,058.31
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$39.23
Record
52%
497-452 (949)
Invested
$500
Value
$484.85
PnL
-$15.15
Record
3%
1-34 (35)
Invested
$256
Value
$260
PnL
+$4
Record
15%
150-841 (991)
Invested
$16.16
Value
$16.4
PnL
+$0.24
Record
55%
680-552 (1232)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.