Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Team Falcons (80%) · Team Falcons at 72¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Team Falcons
5
Team Falcons 80%
$12.7K
$95.44
72.2¢ → 71.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Falcons at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | Legacyavg 28.2¢ | $5.5K | $5.6K | +$63.51 | 54% 133-112 (245) |
RA Rayaya | Team Falconsavg 72¢ | $4.3K | $4.3K | +$30 | — 4-1 (5) |
JU JuiceFarm | Team Falconsavg 72¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$10 | — 12-7 (19) |
 relativesignificance | Team Falconsavg 73¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$8.7 | 56% 147-114 (261) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Team Falconsavg 72¢ | $90.33 | $90.96 | +$0.63 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
Invested
$5,499.46
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$63.51
Record
54%
133-112 (245)
Invested
$4,319.89
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$30
Record
—
4-1 (5)
Invested
$1,440
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$10
Record
—
12-7 (19)
relativesignificanceInvested
$1,269.61
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$8.7
Record
56%
147-114 (261)
Invested
$90.33
Value
$90.96
PnL
+$0.63
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.