Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5)

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold B8 (77%) · B8 at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3

Legacy<1¢B8>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

B8 77%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$201.4

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 100¢

+49% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralB8 at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Legacy0%

B8100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

B810 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares6,654

Combined PnL+$284.28

Legacy3 traders

Total Value$470.52

Total Shares1,330

Combined PnL-$82.88

B8 — 77%Legacy — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on B8. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLegacy 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrB8 75% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000B8 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HL HLEbritni	B8avg 65¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$0	54% 15-13 (28)
ShadowRealms	B8avg 63¢	$840.41	$1.0K	+$13.34	51% 121-115 (236)
vtcchampion52	B8avg 80.9¢	$847.83	$996.7	+$198.07	48% 1123-1195 (2318)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	B8avg 64.8¢	$753.09	$808.22	+$55.13	57% 217-165 (382)
SU suntoriCTR	Legacyavg 35¢	$272.56	$264.57	-$87.61	45% 13548-16457 (30005)
Stickman22	B8avg 62¢	$222.17	$249.04	+$26.88	52% 1685-1563 (3248)
polaroid14CTR	Legacyavg 34¢	$122.18	$122.18	+$7.19	48% 321-346 (667)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Legacyavg 35¢	$86.23	$83.77	-$2.46	50% 20101-20430 (40531)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	B8avg 78¢	$84.2	$71.2	-$13	52% 8419-7683 (16102)
tankfest2027<$100	B8avg 61¢	$48.56	$61.45	+$2.39	49% 137-145 (282)
BL BlessedKaladin<$100	B8avg 64¢	$45.78	$48.64	+$2.86	51% 998-943 (1941)
YI yishiwucheng<$100	B8avg 77.9¢	$23.04	$19.83	-$3.21	50% 1867-1847 (3714)
NO NotJump<$100	B8avg 63¢	$8.1	$9.93	+$1.83	43% 10008-13026 (23034)

HLEbritni

Invested

$1,624.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

15-13 (28)

ShadowRealms

Invested

$840.41

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$13.34

Record

51%

121-115 (236)

vtcchampion52

Invested

$847.83

Value

$996.7

PnL

+$198.07

Record

48%

1123-1195 (2318)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Invested

$753.09

Value

$808.22

PnL

+$55.13

Record

57%

217-165 (382)

suntoriCTR

Legacy

Invested

$272.56

Value

$264.57

PnL

-$87.61

Record

45%

13548-16457 (30005)

Stickman22

Invested

$222.17

Value

$249.04

PnL

+$26.88

Record

52%

1685-1563 (3248)

polaroid14CTR

Legacy

Invested

$122.18

Value

$122.18

PnL

+$7.19

Record

48%

321-346 (667)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Legacy

Invested

$86.23

Value

$83.77

PnL

-$2.46

Record

50%

20101-20430 (40531)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$84.2

Value

$71.2

PnL

-$13

Record

52%

8419-7683 (16102)

tankfest2027<$100

Invested

$48.56

Value

$61.45

PnL

+$2.39

Record

49%

137-145 (282)

BlessedKaladin<$100

Invested

$45.78

Value

$48.64

PnL

+$2.86

Record

51%

998-943 (1941)

yishiwucheng<$100

Invested

$23.04

Value

$19.83

PnL

-$3.21

Record

50%

1867-1847 (3714)

NotJump<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

$9.93

PnL

+$1.83

Record

43%

10008-13026 (23034)

Research grade

NeutralB8 at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on B8. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLegacy 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrB8 75% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000B8 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that B8 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.