Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Envy - Map 1 Winner

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Envy (71%) · Envy at 100¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 28

Luminosity<1¢Envy>99¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Envy

Consensus Traders

Envy 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.7K

Smart Money Entry

95.1¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralEnvy at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Envy

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Luminosity0%

Envy100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Envy5 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,481

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Luminosity2 traders

Total Value$725.72

Total Shares1,740

Combined PnL-$72.25

Envy — 71%Luminosity — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Envyavg 78.1¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$34.03	53% 2204-1969 (4173)
└ Envy leg	Envyavg 78.1¢	$2.9K	$1.9K	-$978.31
└ Luminosity leg	Luminosityavg 22.7¢	$845.04	$1.8K	+$944.28
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Envyavg 98¢	$5.6K	$3.0K	$-2.7K	95% 22892-1151 (24043)
LL lllllllIlllCTR	Luminosityavg 54.2¢	$572.48	$564.98	-$7.51	55% 289-236 (525)
BI BillBenter2026	Envyavg 86¢	$404.11	$399.41	-$4.7	58% 18402-13504 (31906)
GT gt7238CTR	Luminosityavg 33¢	$225.48	$160.74	-$64.74	45% 592-724 (1316)
VeryLucky888	Envyavg 43¢	$232.75	$81.38	+$9.63	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Envyavg 46¢	$28.33	$28.64	+$0.31	49% 18605-19035 (37640)
0X 0x4f2<$100	Envyavg 64¢	$17.07	$20.31	+$3.24	52% 9103-8501 (17604)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Envy

Invested

$3,762.98

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$34.03

Record

53%

2204-1969 (4173)

Both legs:

Envy$2,917.9478.1¢-$978.31

Luminosity$845.0422.7¢+$944.28

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Envy

Invested

$5,643

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

95%

22892-1151 (24043)

lllllllIlllCTR

Luminosity

Invested

$572.48

Value

$564.98

PnL

-$7.51

Record

55%

289-236 (525)

BillBenter2026

Envy

Invested

$404.11

Value

$399.41

PnL

-$4.7

Record

58%

18402-13504 (31906)

gt7238CTR

Luminosity

Invested

$225.48

Value

$160.74

PnL

-$64.74

Record

45%

592-724 (1316)

VeryLucky888

Envy

Invested

$232.75

Value

$81.38

PnL

+$9.63

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Envy

Invested

$28.33

Value

$28.64

PnL

+$0.31

Record

49%

18605-19035 (37640)

0x4f2<$100

Envy

Invested

$17.07

Value

$20.31

PnL

+$3.24

Record

52%

9103-8501 (17604)

Research grade

NeutralEnvy at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Envy

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Envy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.