Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team NS, while the market favors Team leva2k (100%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Team leva2k vs Team NS (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group A

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Team NS (54%) · Team NS at 0.1¢ · $964 held · ends Nov 14

Team leva2k>99¢Team NS<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Team NS

Consensus Traders

Team NS 54%

Total Value

$963.58

Combined PnL

-$544.65

Smart Money Entry

38.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidTeam NS at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team NS

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Team leva2k 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team leva2k100%

Team NS0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team leva2k6 traders

Total Value$692.95

Total Shares693

Combined PnL+$175.1

Team NS7 traders

Total Value$270.63

Total Shares2,222

Combined PnL-$719.75

Team leva2k — 46%Team NS — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Team NS. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam NS 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Team NS 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR Crazyboy77	Team leva2kavg 57¢	$193.8	$339.66	+$145.86	13% 15-103 (118)
NO NotJumpCTR	Team NSavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.76	+$0.26	52% 820-759 (1579)
CI cigarettes	Team leva2kavg 96.8¢	$145.2	$149.93	+$4.73	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
poshposh<$100	Team leva2kavg 75.9¢	$94.67	$99.47	+$4.81	49% 1117-1185 (2302)
VP Vps1<$100	Team leva2kavg 99.9¢	$46.89	$46.92	+$0.02	88% 111-15 (126)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Team leva2kavg 64¢	$33.75	$29.99	+$11.24	44% 372-467 (839)
LR lryyy<$100	Team leva2kavg 52.6¢	$18.54	$26.99	+$8.45	45% 805-991 (1796)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Team NSavg 28.6¢	$51.82	$6.74	-$45.08	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
0X 0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525CTR	Team NSavg 46.1¢	$604.78	$0.66	-$604.12	46% 12-14 (26)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Team NSavg 44¢	$63.09	$0.29	-$62.8	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Team NSavg 0.2¢	$0.45	$0.11	-$0.34	3% 8-285 (293)
dips.CTR<$100	Team NSavg 5.4¢	$6.17	$0.05	-$4.17	47% 969-1098 (2067)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Team NSavg 44¢	$3.52	$0.02	-$3.5	50% 1587-1614 (3201)

Crazyboy77

Team leva2k

Invested

$193.8

Value

$339.66

PnL

+$145.86

Record

13%

15-103 (118)

NotJumpCTR

Team NS

Invested

$262.5

Value

$262.76

PnL

+$0.26

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

cigarettes

Team leva2k

Invested

$145.2

Value

$149.93

PnL

+$4.73

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

poshposh<$100

Team leva2k

Invested

$94.67

Value

$99.47

PnL

+$4.81

Record

49%

1117-1185 (2302)

Vps1<$100

Team leva2k

Invested

$46.89

Value

$46.92

PnL

+$0.02

Record

88%

111-15 (126)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Team leva2k

Invested

$33.75

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$11.24

Record

44%

372-467 (839)

lryyy<$100

Team leva2k

Invested

$18.54

Value

$26.99

PnL

+$8.45

Record

45%

805-991 (1796)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Team NS

Invested

$51.82

Value

$6.74

PnL

-$45.08

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525CTR

Team NS

Invested

$604.78

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$604.12

Record

46%

12-14 (26)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Team NS

Invested

$63.09

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$62.8

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Team NS

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.34

Record

8-285 (293)

dips.CTR<$100

Team NS

Invested

$6.17

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.17

Record

47%

969-1098 (2067)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Team NS

Invested

$3.52

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.5

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

Research grade

AvoidTeam NS at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Team NS

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Team leva2k 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Team NS. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam NS 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Team NS 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team NS wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.