Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs The Last Resort (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Leo Team (43%) · Leo Team at 78¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 15

Leo Team78¢The Last Resort22¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Leo Team

Consensus Traders

Leo Team 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

$513.4

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 77.5¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLeo Team at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Leo Team

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Leo Team78%

The Last Resort23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Leo Team3 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares13,613

Combined PnL+$534.44

The Last Resort4 traders

Total Value$423.89

Total Shares1,863

Combined PnL-$21.04

Leo Team — 43%The Last Resort — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Leo Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLeo Team 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Leo Team 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	Leo Teamavg 73.7¢	$8.7K	$9.1K	+$446.25	55% 174-142 (316)
JU JuiceFarm	Leo Teamavg 69.9¢	$839	$923.99	+$84.99	54% 58-50 (108)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Leo Teamavg 75¢	$480.48	$483.68	+$3.2	30% 472-1116 (1588)
CI cigarettesCTR	The Last Resortavg 23.4¢	$342.86	$329.68	-$13.17	53% 7402-6535 (13937)
GA GaditimaARB<$100	Leo Teamavg 73¢	$194.44	$175.57	-$18.87	49% 363-380 (743)
└ Leo Team leg	Leo Teamavg 73¢	$111.94	$118.07	+$6.13
└ The Last Resort leg	The Last Resortavg 33¢	$82.5	$57.5	-$25
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	The Last Resortavg 25¢	$87.5	$78.75	-$8.75	68% 2670-1256 (3926)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	The Last Resortavg 23.9¢	$23.75	$11.51	+$1.39	50% 2084-2112 (4196)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	The Last Resortavg 26¢	$4.46	$3.95	-$0.52	39% 1498-2355 (3853)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Leo Team

Invested

$8,677.32

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$446.25

Record

55%

174-142 (316)

JuiceFarm

Leo Team

Invested

$839

Value

$923.99

PnL

+$84.99

Record

54%

58-50 (108)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Leo Team

Invested

$480.48

Value

$483.68

PnL

+$3.2

Record

30%

472-1116 (1588)

cigarettesCTR

The Last Resort

Invested

$342.86

Value

$329.68

PnL

-$13.17

Record

53%

7402-6535 (13937)

GaditimaARB<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$194.44

Value

$175.57

PnL

-$18.87

Record

49%

363-380 (743)

Both legs:

Leo Team$111.9473¢+$6.13

The Last Resort$82.533¢-$25

purplegattoCTR<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$87.5

Value

$78.75

PnL

-$8.75

Record

68%

2670-1256 (3926)

Pan9XCTR<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$23.75

Value

$11.51

PnL

+$1.39

Record

50%

2084-2112 (4196)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$4.46

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$0.52

Record

39%

1498-2355 (3853)

Research grade

NeutralLeo Team at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Leo Team

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Leo Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLeo Team 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Leo Team 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Leo Team wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.