Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs maybe (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #13 Group A

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold maybe (63%) · maybe at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 29

Leo Team44¢maybe56¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

maybe

Consensus Traders

maybe 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$312.32

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 56.5¢

+12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Neutralmaybe at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

maybe

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Leo Team44%

maybe56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

maybe5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares5,199

Combined PnL-$256.06

Leo Team3 traders

Total Value$429.39

Total Shares847

Combined PnL-$56.26

maybe — 63%Leo Team — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on maybe. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpmaybe 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLeo Team 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Leo Team 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
daddyradar	maybeavg 45.4¢	$895.17	$788.2	-$106.97	66% 73-38 (111)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540	maybeavg 51.1¢	$666.32	$619.68	-$46.64	54% 99-85 (184)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Leo Teamavg 52.8¢	$521.86	$512.62	-$9.25	53% 2322-2056 (4378)
└ maybe leg	maybeavg 45.7¢	$203.91	$256.63	+$52.72
└ Leo Team leg	Leo Teamavg 52.8¢	$317.96	$255.99	-$61.97
LE legitgame	maybeavg 60.1¢	$420.7	$409.5	-$11.2	56% 242-187 (429)
poshposhCTR	Leo Teamavg 49.9¢	$372.83	$334.32	-$38.51	59% 9671-6655 (16326)
JohnLKellyJr	maybeavg 50.8¢	$406.27	$319.99	-$86.28	52% 1210-1098 (2308)
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8	maybeavg 57.7¢	$244.37	$239.41	-$4.96	58% 81-59 (140)
0X 0x4f2CTR	Leo Teamavg 53.4¢	$100.02	$81.54	-$18.48	52% 9109-8514 (17623)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Leo Teamavg 56.8¢	$12.8	$13.53	+$0.73	67% 23201-11598 (34799)

daddyradar

maybe

Invested

$895.17

Value

$788.2

PnL

-$106.97

Record

66%

73-38 (111)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540

maybe

Invested

$666.32

Value

$619.68

PnL

-$46.64

Record

54%

99-85 (184)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$521.86

Value

$512.62

PnL

-$9.25

Record

53%

2322-2056 (4378)

Both legs:

maybe$203.9145.7¢+$52.72

Leo Team$317.9652.8¢-$61.97

legitgame

maybe

Invested

$420.7

Value

$409.5

PnL

-$11.2

Record

56%

242-187 (429)

poshposhCTR

Leo Team

Invested

$372.83

Value

$334.32

PnL

-$38.51

Record

59%

9671-6655 (16326)

JohnLKellyJr

maybe

Invested

$406.27

Value

$319.99

PnL

-$86.28

Record

52%

1210-1098 (2308)

0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8

maybe

Invested

$244.37

Value

$239.41

PnL

-$4.96

Record

58%

81-59 (140)

0x4f2CTR

Leo Team

Invested

$100.02

Value

$81.54

PnL

-$18.48

Record

52%

9109-8514 (17623)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$12.8

Value

$13.53

PnL

+$0.73

Record

67%

23201-11598 (34799)

Research grade

Neutralmaybe at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

maybe

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on maybe. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpmaybe 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLeo Team 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Leo Team 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that maybe wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.