Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Honvéd - Map 2 Winner
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Leo Team (86%) · Leo Team at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Leo Team
7
Leo Team 86%
$1.9K
$71.23
76.3¢ → 100¢
+31% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralLeo Team at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Leo Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Leo Teamavg 64¢ | $897.44 | $936.38 | +$38.94 | 53% 2373-2082 (4455) |
VP Vps1 | Leo Teamavg 99.9¢ | $489.51 | $489.76 | +$0.25 | 96% 294-13 (307) |
TE testBruno2 | Leo Teamavg 77.1¢ | $158.07 | $183.11 | +$25.05 | 58% 854-629 (1483) |
0X 0x4f2 | Leo Teamavg 69.1¢ | $133.92 | $141.71 | +$7.8 | 52% 9141-8537 (17678) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Leo Teamavg 97¢ | $97 | $99.95 | +$2.95 | 46% 7988-9443 (17431) |
 poshposh<$100 | Leo Teamavg 49.6¢ | $26.81 | $43.91 | +$17.1 | 59% 9935-6911 (16846) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Honvédavg 18.1¢ | $25.91 | $5.06 | -$20.85 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$897.44
Value
$936.38
PnL
+$38.94
Record
53%
2373-2082 (4455)
Invested
$489.51
Value
$489.76
PnL
+$0.25
Record
96%
294-13 (307)
Invested
$158.07
Value
$183.11
PnL
+$25.05
Record
58%
854-629 (1483)
Invested
$133.92
Value
$141.71
PnL
+$7.8
Record
52%
9141-8537 (17678)
Invested
$97
Value
$99.95
PnL
+$2.95
Record
46%
7988-9443 (17431)
poshposh<$100Invested
$26.81
Value
$43.91
PnL
+$17.1
Record
59%
9935-6911 (16846)
Invested
$25.91
Value
$5.06
PnL
-$20.85
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.