Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Honvéd (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #13 Group A
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Leo Team (50%) · Leo Team at 90¢ · $680 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Leo Team
6
Leo Team 50%
$679.54
-$32.74
83.2¢ → 90¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLeo Team at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Leo Teamavg 80¢ | $263.93 | $202.25 | -$21.93 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
 poshposh | Leo Teamavg 84.6¢ | $183.3 | $188.81 | +$5.51 | 59% 9923-6892 (16815) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Leo Teamavg 84.7¢ | $169.65 | $175.52 | +$5.87 | 53% 2369-2080 (4449) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Honvédavg 27.7¢ | $88.54 | $57.45 | -$31.09 | 42% 1713-2338 (4051) |
0X 0x4f2CTR<$100 | Honvédavg 9.7¢ | $36.27 | $50.24 | +$13.97 | 52% 9138-8534 (17672) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Honvédavg 16.7¢ | $10.33 | $5.27 | -$5.06 | 38% 3192-5199 (8391) |
Invested
$263.93
Value
$202.25
PnL
-$21.93
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
poshposhInvested
$183.3
Value
$188.81
PnL
+$5.51
Record
59%
9923-6892 (16815)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$169.65
Value
$175.52
PnL
+$5.87
Record
53%
2369-2080 (4449)
Invested
$88.54
Value
$57.45
PnL
-$31.09
Record
42%
1713-2338 (4051)
Invested
$36.27
Value
$50.24
PnL
+$13.97
Record
52%
9138-8534 (17672)
Invested
$10.33
Value
$5.27
PnL
-$5.06
Record
38%
3192-5199 (8391)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.