Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Drama eSports - Map 1 Winner
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Lavked (75%) · Lavked at 81¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Lavked
4
Lavked 75%
3 arb excluded
$1.4K
$1.67
54.3¢ → 81¢
+49% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLavked at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Lavkedavg 53.8¢ | $428.06 | $493.83 | +$74.86 | 64% 101-57 (158) |
31 319113331313111 | Lavkedavg 56.5¢ | $371.65 | $300.86 | -$70.8 | 58% 114-84 (198) |
NO NotJump | Lavkedavg 50¢ | $262.5 | $262.5 | +$0 | 54% 455-382 (837) |
SH shiifooARB<$100 | Lavkedavg 59¢ | $187.57 | $184.38 | -$3.19 | 62% 1364-828 (2192) |
| └ Lavked leg | Lavkedavg 59¢ | $109.74 | $119.97 | +$10.23 | |
| └ Drama eSports leg | Drama eSportsavg 42.9¢ | $77.83 | $64.41 | -$13.42 | |
 poshposhARB<$100 | Lavkedavg 44.6¢ | $86.2 | $102.05 | +$15.85 | 47% 532-590 (1122) |
| └ Lavked leg | Lavkedavg 44.6¢ | $52.41 | $73.46 | +$21.05 | |
| └ Drama eSports leg | Drama eSportsavg 43.1¢ | $33.79 | $28.59 | -$5.2 | |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Drama eSportsavg 35.9¢ | $75.07 | $85.66 | +$10.59 | 37% 538-932 (1470) |
| └ Lavked leg | Lavkedavg 44.9¢ | $35.48 | $61.97 | +$26.5 | |
| └ Drama eSports leg | Drama eSportsavg 35.9¢ | $39.59 | $23.69 | -$15.9 | |
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100 | Drama eSportsavg 46.5¢ | $11.16 | $8.76 | -$2.4 | 27% 182-490 (672) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$428.06
Value
$493.83
PnL
+$74.86
Record
64%
101-57 (158)
Invested
$371.65
Value
$300.86
PnL
-$70.8
Record
58%
114-84 (198)
Invested
$262.5
Value
$262.5
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
455-382 (837)
Invested
$187.57
Value
$184.38
PnL
-$3.19
Record
62%
1364-828 (2192)
Both legs:
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$86.2
Value
$102.05
PnL
+$15.85
Record
47%
532-590 (1122)
Both legs:
Invested
$75.07
Value
$85.66
PnL
+$10.59
Record
37%
538-932 (1470)
Both legs:
Invested
$11.16
Value
$8.76
PnL
-$2.4
Record
27%
182-490 (672)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.