Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Drama eSports, while the market favors Lavked (66%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Drama eSports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #12 Group C

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Drama eSports (75%) · Drama eSports at 35¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Lavked66¢Drama eSports34¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Drama eSports

Consensus Traders

Drama eSports 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$25.88

Smart Money Entry

43.7¢ → 34.5¢

-21% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDrama eSports at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Drama eSports

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Lavked 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lavked66%

Drama eSports35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lavked2 traders

Total Value$305.26

Total Shares495

Combined PnL+$26.38

Drama eSports6 traders

Total Value$649.21

Total Shares1,260

Combined PnL-$52.26

Lavked — 25%Drama eSports — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Lavkedavg 57.6¢	$445.23	$435.98	-$9.26	64% 101-57 (158)
└ Lavked leg	Lavkedavg 57.6¢	$258.98	$267.66	+$8.68
└ Drama eSports leg	Drama eSportsavg 44.8¢	$186.26	$168.32	-$17.94
CA calculate10	Lavkedavg 57.1¢	$356.31	$290.26	+$26.08	28% 47-118 (165)
NO NotJumpCTR	Drama eSportsavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0	54% 455-382 (837)
31 319113331313111CTR	Drama eSportsavg 38.7¢	$964.06	$163.31	-$29.79	58% 114-84 (198)
poshposhCTR	Drama eSportsavg 45¢	$145.11	$120.89	-$24.22	47% 532-590 (1122)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Drama eSportsavg 46.6¢	$72.05	$73.47	+$1.42	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Drama eSportsavg 40¢	$23.95	$23.64	-$0.31	37% 538-932 (1470)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Lavkedavg 63¢	$14.7	$15	+$0.3	41% 257-370 (627)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Drama eSportsavg 37¢	$4.76	$5.4	+$0.64	47% 1625-1826 (3451)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Lavked

Invested

$445.23

Value

$435.98

PnL

-$9.26

Record

64%

101-57 (158)

Both legs:

Lavked$258.9857.6¢+$8.68

Drama eSports$186.2644.8¢-$17.94

calculate10

Lavked

Invested

$356.31

Value

$290.26

PnL

+$26.08

Record

28%

47-118 (165)

NotJumpCTR

Drama eSports

Invested

$262.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

319113331313111CTR

Drama eSports

Invested

$964.06

Value

$163.31

PnL

-$29.79

Record

58%

114-84 (198)

poshposhCTR

Drama eSports

Invested

$145.11

Value

$120.89

PnL

-$24.22

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Drama eSports

Invested

$72.05

Value

$73.47

PnL

+$1.42

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Drama eSports

Invested

$23.95

Value

$23.64

PnL

-$0.31

Record

37%

538-932 (1470)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Lavked

Invested

$14.7

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.3

Record

41%

257-370 (627)

suntoriCTR<$100

Drama eSports

Invested

$4.76

Value

$5.4

PnL

+$0.64

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

Research grade

NeutralDrama eSports at 35%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Drama eSports

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Lavked 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Drama eSports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.