Counter-Strike: Lavked vs DNK (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #12 Group C

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Lavked (78%) · Lavked at 60¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Lavked60¢DNK40¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lavked

Consensus Traders

Lavked 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$22.3

Smart Money Entry

57.6¢ → 59.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralLavked at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lavked

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lavked60%

DNK41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

DNK2 traders

Total Value$365.45

Total Shares697

Combined PnL+$18.03

Lavked7 traders

Total Value$685.58

Total Shares950

Combined PnL+$4.26

DNK — 22%Lavked — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
31 319113331313111CTR	DNKavg 40.4¢	$320.35	$340.8	+$20.45	57% 104-80 (184)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Lavkedavg 65.4¢	$282.73	$269.31	-$13.41	64% 93-53 (146)
└ Lavked leg	Lavkedavg 65.4¢	$175.04	$172.68	-$2.36
└ DNK leg	DNKavg 39.6¢	$107.69	$96.64	-$11.05
NO NotJump	Lavkedavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0	54% 428-364 (792)
CA calculate10	Lavkedavg 57.8¢	$173.69	$175.7	+$2.01	27% 43-116 (159)
poshposh<$100	Lavkedavg 59.6¢	$92.66	$94.56	+$1.9	47% 509-574 (1083)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Lavkedavg 61.6¢	$64.65	$61.43	-$3.23	41% 247-360 (607)
GA Gaditima<$100	Lavkedavg 73.2¢	$37.78	$38.43	+$0.65	46% 158-182 (340)
CI cigarettes<$100	Lavkedavg 67¢	$33.5	$34.25	+$0.75	53% 6080-5449 (11529)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	DNKavg 28¢	$27.07	$24.65	-$2.42	52% 754-704 (1458)
SU suntori<$100	Lavkedavg 57¢	$16.53	$18.71	+$2.18	47% 1547-1731 (3278)

319113331313111CTR

DNK

Invested

$320.35

Value

$340.8

PnL

+$20.45

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Lavked

Invested

$282.73

Value

$269.31

PnL

-$13.41

Record

64%

93-53 (146)

Both legs:

Lavked$175.0465.4¢-$2.36

DNK$107.6939.6¢-$11.05

NotJump

Lavked

Invested

$262.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

428-364 (792)

calculate10

Lavked

Invested

$173.69

Value

$175.7

PnL

+$2.01

Record

27%

43-116 (159)

poshposh<$100

Lavked

Invested

$92.66

Value

$94.56

PnL

+$1.9

Record

47%

509-574 (1083)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Lavked

Invested

$64.65

Value

$61.43

PnL

-$3.23

Record

41%

247-360 (607)

Gaditima<$100

Lavked

Invested

$37.78

Value

$38.43

PnL

+$0.65

Record

46%

158-182 (340)

cigarettes<$100

Lavked

Invested

$33.5

Value

$34.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

53%

6080-5449 (11529)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

DNK

Invested

$27.07

Value

$24.65

PnL

-$2.42

Record

52%

754-704 (1458)

suntori<$100

Lavked

Invested

$16.53

Value

$18.71

PnL

+$2.18

Record

47%

1547-1731 (3278)

Research grade

NeutralLavked at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lavked

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lavked wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.