Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold KUUSAMO.gg, while the market favors Donstu Esports (51%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 10 Closed Qualifier Group D
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold KUUSAMO.gg (60%) · KUUSAMO.gg at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
KUUSAMO.gg
5
KUUSAMO.gg 60%
$1.7K
$42
44.4¢ → 49.5¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralKUUSAMO.gg at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Donstu Esports 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on KUUSAMO.gg. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FI FinHealCTR | KUUSAMO.ggavg 44.9¢ | $937.73 | $1.0K | +$96.82 | 49% 96-101 (197) |
38 38791873984189 | Donstu Esportsavg 56.9¢ | $674.74 | $576.58 | -$63.68 | 46% 7901-9318 (17219) |
GT gt7238CTR<$100 | KUUSAMO.ggavg 30¢ | $21.86 | $34.97 | +$9.11 | 45% 607-746 (1353) |
GG GGLPLCTR<$100 | KUUSAMO.ggavg 49¢ | $7.48 | $7.55 | +$0.08 | 50% 675-669 (1344) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Donstu Esportsavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $2.53 | -$0.33 | 52% 3992-3635 (7627) |
Invested
$937.73
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$96.82
Record
49%
96-101 (197)
Invested
$674.74
Value
$576.58
PnL
-$63.68
Record
46%
7901-9318 (17219)
Invested
$21.86
Value
$34.97
PnL
+$9.11
Record
45%
607-746 (1353)
Invested
$7.48
Value
$7.55
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
675-669 (1344)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.53
PnL
-$0.33
Record
52%
3992-3635 (7627)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.