Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs BoyBand (BO3) - Elisa Open Suomi Group Stage
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold BoyBand (67%) · BoyBand at 77¢ · $564 held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
BoyBand
6
BoyBand 67%
$564.05
$40.67
50.4¢ → 77¢
+53% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralBoyBand at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on BoyBand. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | BoyBandavg 50.4¢ | $364.19 | $384.59 | +$37.48 | 48% 879-959 (1838) |
GA Gaditima | BoyBandavg 50.4¢ | $126 | $137.5 | +$11.5 | 47% 71-79 (150) |
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100 | KUUSAMO.ggavg 45¢ | $28.13 | $15.63 | -$12.5 | 46% 31-37 (68) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | KUUSAMO.ggavg 21¢ | $10.07 | $10.78 | +$0.72 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | BoyBandavg 53.2¢ | $6.91 | $9.75 | +$2.84 | 48% 424-451 (875) |
RL RLWG<$100 | BoyBandavg 49¢ | $5.17 | $5.8 | +$0.63 | 68% 1591-742 (2333) |
Invested
$364.19
Value
$384.59
PnL
+$37.48
Record
48%
879-959 (1838)
Invested
$126
Value
$137.5
PnL
+$11.5
Record
47%
71-79 (150)
Invested
$28.13
Value
$15.63
PnL
-$12.5
Record
46%
31-37 (68)
Invested
$10.07
Value
$10.78
PnL
+$0.72
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Invested
$6.91
Value
$9.75
PnL
+$2.84
Record
48%
424-451 (875)
Invested
$5.17
Value
$5.8
PnL
+$0.63
Record
68%
1591-742 (2333)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.