Counter-Strike: K27 vs B8 (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group A

16 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold B8 (76%) · B8 at 100¢ · $28K held · ends Oct 28

K27<1¢B8>99¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

B8 76%

Total Value

$28.0K

Combined PnL

$731.36

Smart Money Entry

56.3¢ → 100¢

+78% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralB8 at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 21 top traders (76%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

K270%

B8100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

B816 traders

Total Value$24.9K

Total Shares38,102

Combined PnL+$1.1K

K275 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,400

Combined PnL-$398.01

B8 — 76%K27 — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on B8. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpB8 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrB8 55% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000B8 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	B8avg 61¢	$6.4K	$6.9K	+$497.8	53% 2203-1968 (4171)
JohnLKellyJr	B8avg 50.8¢	$4.1K	$4.5K	+$414.19	53% 1200-1077 (2277)
HO Hongweiqian	B8avg 58.3¢	$3.6K	$3.4K	-$140.97	47% 212-236 (448)
NO nobody2somebody	B8avg 42.3¢	$2.1K	$2.7K	+$664.52	52% 612-573 (1185)
13 1337zzz1337	B8avg 60.8¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$157.44	52% 207-193 (400)
WI WiretransferxyzCTR	K27avg 40¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$109.83	53% 746-651 (1397)
RA Rayaya	B8avg 60¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$120	60% 1160-759 (1919)
SatanishippieCTR	K27avg 60¢	$1.0K	$733.33	-$266.67	48% 298-320 (618)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569	B8avg 68.5¢	$569.64	$711.36	+$141.72	46% 887-1057 (1944)
hasobidale	B8avg 60¢	$720	$672	-$48	67% 208-103 (311)
poshposh	B8avg 71.6¢	$554.08	$604.44	+$50.36	60% 9362-6344 (15706)
AD adururu	B8avg 64.1¢	$578.63	$505.26	-$73.37	53% 356-311 (667)
OX oxe78sh4w98	B8avg 66¢	$586.25	$497.73	-$88.52	53% 328-293 (621)
AR arbmonitor	B8avg 65¢	$419.46	$370.11	-$49.35	44% 559-715 (1274)
bernardi22	B8avg 56.9¢	$324.98	$286.53	-$3.93	56% 1231-954 (2185)
cs2.quantCTR	K27avg 45.7¢	$295.94	$284.85	-$11.09	57% 73-55 (128)
AM ameisgoat11CTR	K27avg 56.3¢	$419.54	$200.02	+$56.72	47% 2041-2345 (4386)
BA Babooou	B8avg 34¢	$77.27	$127.27	+$50	52% 203-187 (390)
MA manoamano<$100	B8avg 61¢	$98.22	$90.16	-$8.06	51% 440-423 (863)
RL RLWG<$100	B8avg 52¢	$5.2	$5.6	+$0.4	50% 7654-7675 (15329)
AS astapzippoCTR	K27avg 71.8¢	$287	$0.2	-$286.8	56% 2121-1661 (3782)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Invested

$6,448.9

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$497.8

Record

53%

2203-1968 (4171)

JohnLKellyJr

Invested

$4,056

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$414.19

Record

53%

1200-1077 (2277)

Hongweiqian

Invested

$3,552.92

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$140.97

Record

47%

212-236 (448)

nobody2somebody

Invested

$2,055.28

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$664.52

Record

52%

612-573 (1185)

1337zzz1337

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$157.44

Record

52%

207-193 (400)

WiretransferxyzCTR

K27

Invested

$1,717.11

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$109.83

Record

53%

746-651 (1397)

Rayaya

Invested

$1,800

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$120

Record

60%

1160-759 (1919)

SatanishippieCTR

K27

Invested

$1,000

Value

$733.33

PnL

-$266.67

Record

48%

298-320 (618)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569

Invested

$569.64

Value

$711.36

PnL

+$141.72

Record

46%

887-1057 (1944)

hasobidale

Invested

$720

Value

$672

PnL

-$48

Record

67%

208-103 (311)

poshposh

Invested

$554.08

Value

$604.44

PnL

+$50.36

Record

60%

9362-6344 (15706)

adururu

Invested

$578.63

Value

$505.26

PnL

-$73.37

Record

53%

356-311 (667)

oxe78sh4w98

Invested

$586.25

Value

$497.73

PnL

-$88.52

Record

53%

328-293 (621)

arbmonitor

Invested

$419.46

Value

$370.11

PnL

-$49.35

Record

44%

559-715 (1274)

bernardi22

Invested

$324.98

Value

$286.53

PnL

-$3.93

Record

56%

1231-954 (2185)

cs2.quantCTR

K27

Invested

$295.94

Value

$284.85

PnL

-$11.09

Record

57%

73-55 (128)

ameisgoat11CTR

K27

Invested

$419.54

Value

$200.02

PnL

+$56.72

Record

47%

2041-2345 (4386)

Babooou

Invested

$77.27

Value

$127.27

PnL

+$50

Record

52%

203-187 (390)

manoamano<$100

Invested

$98.22

Value

$90.16

PnL

-$8.06

Record

51%

440-423 (863)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.6

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

7654-7675 (15329)

astapzippoCTR

K27

Invested

$287

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$286.8

Record

56%

2121-1661 (3782)

Research grade

NeutralB8 at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

16 of 21 top traders (76%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on B8. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpB8 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrB8 55% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000B8 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that B8 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.