Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold JiJieHao, while the market favors SAW Youngsters (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs SAW Youngsters - Map 1 Winner

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold JiJieHao (50%) · JiJieHao at 0.1¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 29

JiJieHao<1¢SAW Youngsters>99¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

JiJieHao

Consensus Traders

JiJieHao 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$-5.8K

Smart Money Entry

60.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidJiJieHao at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

JiJieHao

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors SAW Youngsters 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

JiJieHao0%

SAW Youngsters100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

JiJieHao3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares13,839

Combined PnL$-5.7K

SAW Youngsters3 traders

Total Value$815.42

Total Shares1,317

Combined PnL-$108.18

JiJieHao — 50%SAW Youngsters — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJrCTR	JiJieHaoavg 60.4¢	$8.4K	$2.6K	$-5.7K	52% 1210-1098 (2308)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	SAW Youngstersavg 57.5¢	$512.11	$512.35	+$0.24	53% 2322-2056 (4378)
└ SAW Youngsters leg	SAW Youngstersavg 57.5¢	$295.85	$295.73	-$0.11
└ JiJieHao leg	JiJieHaoavg 42.4¢	$216.26	$216.61	+$0.35
VP Vps1	SAW Youngstersavg 99.9¢	$449.55	$449.78	+$0.23	96% 269-12 (281)
AN anyjezz	SAW Youngstersavg 47.9¢	$291.71	$240.52	-$51.2	49% 528-547 (1075)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	SAW Youngstersavg 70.7¢	$182.33	$125.12	-$57.21	59% 30209-20922 (51131)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	JiJieHaoavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.83	+$0.78	50% 7744-7758 (15502)
46 467j6yjCTR<$100	JiJieHaoavg 43¢	$3.28	$3.24	-$0.04	97% 3248-113 (3361)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$8,357.74

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-5.7K

Record

52%

1210-1098 (2308)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$512.11

Value

$512.35

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

2322-2056 (4378)

Both legs:

SAW Youngsters$295.8557.5¢-$0.11

JiJieHao$216.2642.4¢+$0.35

Vps1

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$449.55

Value

$449.78

PnL

+$0.23

Record

96%

269-12 (281)

anyjezz

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$291.71

Value

$240.52

PnL

-$51.2

Record

49%

528-547 (1075)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$182.33

Value

$125.12

PnL

-$57.21

Record

59%

30209-20922 (51131)

RLWGCTR<$100

JiJieHao

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.83

PnL

+$0.78

Record

50%

7744-7758 (15502)

467j6yjCTR<$100

JiJieHao

Invested

$3.28

Value

$3.24

PnL

-$0.04

Record

97%

3248-113 (3361)

Research grade

AvoidJiJieHao at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

JiJieHao

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors SAW Youngsters 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that JiJieHao wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.