Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs SAW Youngsters (BO3) - Circuito Retake Group A

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold JiJieHao (63%) · JiJieHao at 98¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 29

JiJieHao98¢SAW Youngsters2¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

JiJieHao

Consensus Traders

JiJieHao 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.8K

Combined PnL

-$460.36

Smart Money Entry

70.4¢ → 97.5¢

+39% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralJiJieHao at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

JiJieHao

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

JiJieHao98%

SAW Youngsters2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

JiJieHao5 traders

Total Value$14.6K

Total Shares20,970

Combined PnL-$358.57

SAW Youngsters3 traders

Total Value$88.58

Total Shares687

Combined PnL-$101.78

JiJieHao — 63%SAW Youngsters — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	JiJieHaoavg 70.2¢	$13.5K	$13.0K	-$517.75	52% 1210-1099 (2309)
hasobidale	JiJieHaoavg 71.6¢	$799.9	$988.54	+$188.65	66% 211-107 (318)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	JiJieHaoavg 74.1¢	$543.76	$563.17	+$19.41	53% 2322-2056 (4378)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	JiJieHaoavg 66.7¢	$225.21	$125.01	+$12.96	47% 2162-2466 (4628)
└ JiJieHao leg	JiJieHaoavg 66.7¢	$83.38	$96.88	+$29.84
└ SAW Youngsters leg	SAW Youngstersavg 36¢	$45	$28.13	-$16.88
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	SAW Youngstersavg 28.2¢	$150.04	$61.12	-$88.92	59% 30213-20922 (51135)
poshposhCTR<$100	SAW Youngstersavg 15.9¢	$30.32	$24.72	-$5.61	59% 9671-6658 (16329)
TE testBruno2	JiJieHaoavg 92.2¢	$979.89	$9.46	-$50.63	58% 827-604 (1431)
RL RLWG<$100	JiJieHaoavg 71¢	$7.1	$8.85	+$1.75	50% 7745-7761 (15506)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	SAW Youngstersavg 42¢	$10	$2.74	-$7.26	67% 23201-11599 (34800)

JohnLKellyJr

JiJieHao

Invested

$13,526.34

Value

$13.0K

PnL

-$517.75

Record

52%

1210-1099 (2309)

hasobidale

JiJieHao

Invested

$799.9

Value

$988.54

PnL

+$188.65

Record

66%

211-107 (318)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

JiJieHao

Invested

$543.76

Value

$563.17

PnL

+$19.41

Record

53%

2322-2056 (4378)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

JiJieHao

Invested

$225.21

Value

$125.01

PnL

+$12.96

Record

47%

2162-2466 (4628)

Both legs:

JiJieHao$83.3866.7¢+$29.84

SAW Youngsters$4536¢-$16.88

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$150.04

Value

$61.12

PnL

-$88.92

Record

59%

30213-20922 (51135)

poshposhCTR<$100

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$30.32

Value

$24.72

PnL

-$5.61

Record

59%

9671-6658 (16329)

testBruno2

JiJieHao

Invested

$979.89

Value

$9.46

PnL

-$50.63

Record

58%

827-604 (1431)

RLWG<$100

JiJieHao

Invested

$7.1

Value

$8.85

PnL

+$1.75

Record

50%

7745-7761 (15506)

pauleta23CTR<$100

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$10

Value

$2.74

PnL

-$7.26

Record

67%

23201-11599 (34800)

Research grade

NeutralJiJieHao at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

JiJieHao

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that JiJieHao wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.