Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Metizport, while the market favors JiJieHao (58%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Metizport (45%) · Metizport at 42¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 1

JiJieHao58¢Metizport42¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Metizport

Consensus Traders

Metizport 45%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$126.98

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 42¢

-21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMetizport at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Metizport

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors JiJieHao 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

JiJieHao58%

Metizport42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Metizport5 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares8,331

Combined PnL+$2.1K

JiJieHao6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares7,129

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Metizport — 45%JiJieHao — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Metizport. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMetizport 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMetizport 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrMetizport 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Metizport 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Metizportavg 52.8¢	$2.8K	$4.3K	+$1.5K	52% 1259-1144 (2403)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Metizportavg 64.5¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$22.49	54% 2454-2111 (4565)
└ JiJieHao leg	JiJieHaoavg 31¢	$602.5	$1.1K	+$536.21
└ Metizport leg	Metizportavg 64.5¢	$1.4K	$926.95	-$513.72
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Metizportavg 70.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0.16	52% 13922-12694 (26616)
PA pauleta23CTR	Metizportavg 40¢	$359.69	$670.32	+$310.63	67% 23457-11814 (35271)
SE seeeeeebCTR	Metizportavg 40¢	$359.69	$670.26	+$310.57	52% 796-724 (1520)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	JiJieHaoavg 60¢	$2.1K	$662.43	$-1.4K	51% 350-340 (690)
TO topdogbigboi	JiJieHaoavg 29.7¢	$380.6	$597.13	+$216.52	48% 8937-9552 (18489)
AU authfeez	JiJieHaoavg 48.4¢	$838.62	$329.09	-$509.53	60% 48-32 (80)
poshposhARB<$100	Metizportavg 55.2¢	$287.51	$286.14	-$1.37	58% 10646-7629 (18275)
└ Metizport leg	Metizportavg 55.2¢	$219.62	$165.08	-$54.55
└ JiJieHao leg	JiJieHaoavg 32.8¢	$67.89	$121.06	+$53.17
daddyradar	JiJieHaoavg 29.3¢	$233.29	$251.14	+$17.85	66% 89-45 (134)
0X 0x4f2CTR<$100	Metizportavg 52¢	$50	$53.36	+$3.37	52% 9184-8561 (17745)
TE testBruno2	JiJieHaoavg 42.1¢	$5.5K	$23.5	-$296.47	58% 896-646 (1542)
SH shiifoo<$100	JiJieHaoavg 32.5¢	$72.32	$5.02	-$11.3	59% 3428-2336 (5764)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Metizport

Invested

$2,832.48

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

52%

1259-1144 (2403)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Metizport

Invested

$2,043.17

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$22.49

Record

54%

2454-2111 (4565)

Both legs:

JiJieHao$602.531¢+$536.21

Metizport$1,440.6764.5¢-$513.72

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Metizport

Invested

$1,236.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0.16

Record

52%

13922-12694 (26616)

pauleta23CTR

Metizport

Invested

$359.69

Value

$670.32

PnL

+$310.63

Record

67%

23457-11814 (35271)

seeeeeebCTR

Metizport

Invested

$359.69

Value

$670.26

PnL

+$310.57

Record

52%

796-724 (1520)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

JiJieHao

Invested

$2,091.87

Value

$662.43

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

51%

350-340 (690)

topdogbigboi

JiJieHao

Invested

$380.6

Value

$597.13

PnL

+$216.52

Record

48%

8937-9552 (18489)

authfeez

JiJieHao

Invested

$838.62

Value

$329.09

PnL

-$509.53

Record

60%

48-32 (80)

poshposhARB<$100

Metizport

Invested

$287.51

Value

$286.14

PnL

-$1.37

Record

58%

10646-7629 (18275)

Both legs:

Metizport$219.6255.2¢-$54.55

JiJieHao$67.8932.8¢+$53.17

daddyradar

JiJieHao

Invested

$233.29

Value

$251.14

PnL

+$17.85

Record

66%

89-45 (134)

0x4f2CTR<$100

Metizport

Invested

$50

Value

$53.36

PnL

+$3.37

Record

52%

9184-8561 (17745)

testBruno2

JiJieHao

Invested

$5,495.81

Value

$23.5

PnL

-$296.47

Record

58%

896-646 (1542)

shiifoo<$100

JiJieHao

Invested

$72.32

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$11.3

Record

59%

3428-2336 (5764)

Research grade

NeutralMetizport at 42%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Metizport

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors JiJieHao 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Metizport. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMetizport 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMetizport 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrMetizport 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Metizport 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Metizport wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.