Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Metizport (BO3) - Circuito Retake Playoffs

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold JiJieHao (50%) · JiJieHao at 60¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 1

JiJieHao60¢Metizport40¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

JiJieHao

Consensus Traders

JiJieHao 50%

Total Value

$27.8K

Combined PnL

$109.41

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 59.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralJiJieHao at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

JiJieHao

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

JiJieHao60%

Metizport41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

JiJieHao5 traders

Total Value$16.8K

Total Shares28,292

Combined PnL+$295.57

Metizport5 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares27,287

Combined PnL-$186.16

JiJieHao — 50%Metizport — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on JiJieHao. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpJiJieHao 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMetizport 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000JiJieHao 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlll	JiJieHaoavg 58¢	$12.8K	$13.1K	+$330.98	54% 305-262 (567)
WI WiretransferxyzCTR	Metizportavg 41¢	$5.2K	$5.1K	-$63.09	53% 760-672 (1432)
JO JohnnyWinsCTR	Metizportavg 41.7¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$101.6	43% 123-165 (288)
RA Rayaya	JiJieHaoavg 60¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$44.94	60% 1179-782 (1961)
NO nobody2somebody	JiJieHaoavg 59¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$13.76	52% 634-597 (1231)
itwasawholethingCTR	Metizportavg 40¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$17.41	59% 56-39 (95)
MA manoamanoCTR	Metizportavg 42.1¢	$972.2	$934.21	-$37.99	51% 506-477 (983)
28 2829CTR	Metizportavg 42.1¢	$273.88	$273	-$0.88	46% 424-495 (919)
GT gt7238	JiJieHaoavg 59¢	$220.58	$216.84	-$3.74	45% 626-762 (1388)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	JiJieHaoavg 60¢	$60	$59.5	-$0.5	52% 7485-6781 (14266)

lllllllIlll

JiJieHao

Invested

$12,798.08

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$330.98

Record

54%

305-262 (567)

WiretransferxyzCTR

Metizport

Invested

$5,173.49

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$63.09

Record

53%

760-672 (1432)

JohnnyWinsCTR

Metizport

Invested

$3,435.15

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$101.6

Record

43%

123-165 (288)

Rayaya

JiJieHao

Invested

$1,799.94

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$44.94

Record

60%

1179-782 (1961)

nobody2somebody

JiJieHao

Invested

$1,624

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$13.76

Record

52%

634-597 (1231)

itwasawholethingCTR

Metizport

Invested

$1,392.44

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$17.41

Record

59%

56-39 (95)

manoamanoCTR

Metizport

Invested

$972.2

Value

$934.21

PnL

-$37.99

Record

51%

506-477 (983)

2829CTR

Metizport

Invested

$273.88

Value

$273

PnL

-$0.88

Record

46%

424-495 (919)

gt7238

JiJieHao

Invested

$220.58

Value

$216.84

PnL

-$3.74

Record

45%

626-762 (1388)

ameisgoat11<$100

JiJieHao

Invested

$60

Value

$59.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

7485-6781 (14266)

Research grade

NeutralJiJieHao at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

JiJieHao

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on JiJieHao. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpJiJieHao 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMetizport 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000JiJieHao 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that JiJieHao wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.