Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold JiJieHao, while the market favors Iberian Soul (100%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Iberian Soul - Map 2 Winner

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold JiJieHao (64%) · JiJieHao at 0.1¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 1

JiJieHao<1¢Iberian Soul>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

JiJieHao

Consensus Traders

JiJieHao 64%

Total Value

$14.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.9K

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidJiJieHao at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

JiJieHao

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Iberian Soul 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

JiJieHao0%

Iberian Soul100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

JiJieHao9 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares19,732

Combined PnL$-3.2K

Iberian Soul5 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,759

Combined PnL+$258.13

JiJieHao — 64%Iberian Soul — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	JiJieHaoavg 48.2¢	$5.8K	$5.7K	-$114.93	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR	JiJieHaoavg 57¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$328.95	51% 351-343 (694)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Iberian Soulavg 57.2¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$95.68	54% 2460-2113 (4573)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	JiJieHaoavg 56.8¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$234.9	52% 1263-1146 (2409)
46 467j6yj	Iberian Soulavg 99¢	$825.29	$829.46	+$4.17	97% 3389-119 (3508)
hasobidaleCTR	JiJieHaoavg 57.8¢	$814.59	$697.06	-$117.53	65% 225-119 (344)
AO aomendushen008	Iberian Soulavg 85.8¢	$568.6	$653.17	+$84.57	50% 944-931 (1875)
TE testBruno2	Iberian Soulavg 48.2¢	$2.9K	$492.27	+$22.7	58% 899-648 (1547)
poshposh	Iberian Soulavg 54¢	$106.51	$157.52	+$51.01	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
dicekingCTR	JiJieHaoavg 55¢	$1.6K	$45	$-1.6K	57% 324-240 (564)
GT gt7238CTR	JiJieHaoavg 47.9¢	$431.29	$13.5	-$417.8	45% 626-764 (1390)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	JiJieHaoavg 47.5¢	$49.75	$5.05	-$44.7	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
CC ccllarCTR	JiJieHaoavg 49.3¢	$126	$3.83	-$122.17	47% 461-527 (988)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	JiJieHaoavg 56.1¢	$218.54	$0.19	-$218.35	50% 19465-19831 (39296)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$5,834.33

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$114.93

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$328.95

Record

51%

351-343 (694)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Iberian Soul

Invested

$1,519.81

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$95.68

Record

54%

2460-2113 (4573)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$1,833.34

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$234.9

Record

52%

1263-1146 (2409)

467j6yj

Iberian Soul

Invested

$825.29

Value

$829.46

PnL

+$4.17

Record

97%

3389-119 (3508)

hasobidaleCTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$814.59

Value

$697.06

PnL

-$117.53

Record

65%

225-119 (344)

aomendushen008

Iberian Soul

Invested

$568.6

Value

$653.17

PnL

+$84.57

Record

50%

944-931 (1875)

testBruno2

Iberian Soul

Invested

$2,896.07

Value

$492.27

PnL

+$22.7

Record

58%

899-648 (1547)

poshposh

Iberian Soul

Invested

$106.51

Value

$157.52

PnL

+$51.01

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

dicekingCTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$1,649.99

Value

$45

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

57%

324-240 (564)

gt7238CTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$431.29

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$417.8

Record

45%

626-764 (1390)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

JiJieHao

Invested

$49.75

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$44.7

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

ccllarCTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$126

Value

$3.83

PnL

-$122.17

Record

47%

461-527 (988)

omnibus-076daaCTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$218.54

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$218.35

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

Research grade

AvoidJiJieHao at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

JiJieHao

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Iberian Soul 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that JiJieHao wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.