Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Iberian Soul - Map 1 Winner

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Iberian Soul (55%) · Iberian Soul at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 1

JiJieHao<1¢Iberian Soul>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Iberian Soul

Consensus Traders

Iberian Soul 55%

Total Value

$14.6K

Combined PnL

-$837.22

Smart Money Entry

90.1¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralIberian Soul at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iberian Soul

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

JiJieHao0%

Iberian Soul100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Iberian Soul6 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares14,180

Combined PnL+$569.38

JiJieHao5 traders

Total Value$476.96

Total Shares5,379

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Iberian Soul — 55%JiJieHao — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Iberian Soul. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpIberian Soul 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrJiJieHao 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Iberian Soul 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
46 467j6yj	Iberian Soulavg 99¢	$9.8K	$9.9K	+$92.05	97% 3389-119 (3508)
RR rrooster	Iberian Soulavg 64.6¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$621.25	63% 1345-796 (2141)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Iberian Soulavg 66.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$15.86	54% 2460-2113 (4573)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Iberian Soulavg 86.4¢	$1.0K	$869.99	-$163.33	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
hasobidaleCTR	JiJieHaoavg 55.4¢	$502.36	$264.74	-$117.82	65% 225-119 (344)
TE testBruno2	Iberian Soulavg 69.3¢	$801.08	$179.24	+$22.02	58% 899-648 (1547)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	JiJieHaoavg 51¢	$201.58	$150.19	-$51.38	52% 1263-1146 (2409)
poshposhCTR	JiJieHaoavg 42.3¢	$122.6	$59.98	-$62.62	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
itwasawholething<$100	Iberian Soulavg 45¢	$39.71	$52.95	+$13.24	59% 57-39 (96)
IV Ivan948CTR	JiJieHaoavg 27¢	$965.88	$1.79	-$964.09	43% 79-103 (182)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	JiJieHaoavg 40.5¢	$210.94	$0.26	-$210.68	48% 8991-9637 (18628)

467j6yj

Iberian Soul

Invested

$9,796.65

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$92.05

Record

97%

3389-119 (3508)

rrooster

Iberian Soul

Invested

$1,133.18

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$621.25

Record

63%

1345-796 (2141)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Iberian Soul

Invested

$1,409.2

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$15.86

Record

54%

2460-2113 (4573)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Iberian Soul

Invested

$1,033.31

Value

$869.99

PnL

-$163.33

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

hasobidaleCTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$502.36

Value

$264.74

PnL

-$117.82

Record

65%

225-119 (344)

testBruno2

Iberian Soul

Invested

$801.08

Value

$179.24

PnL

+$22.02

Record

58%

899-648 (1547)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$201.58

Value

$150.19

PnL

-$51.38

Record

52%

1263-1146 (2409)

poshposhCTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$122.6

Value

$59.98

PnL

-$62.62

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

itwasawholething<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$39.71

Value

$52.95

PnL

+$13.24

Record

59%

57-39 (96)

Ivan948CTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$965.88

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$964.09

Record

43%

79-103 (182)

topdogbigboiCTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$210.94

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$210.68

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

Research grade

NeutralIberian Soul at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Iberian Soul

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Iberian Soul. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpIberian Soul 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrJiJieHao 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Iberian Soul 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iberian Soul wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.