Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Iberian Soul (BO3) - Circuito Retake Playoffs

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Iberian Soul (27%) · Iberian Soul at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1

JiJieHao<1¢Iberian Soul>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Iberian Soul

Consensus Traders

Iberian Soul 27%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$-4.6K

Smart Money Entry

64.6¢ → 100¢

+55% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralIberian Soul at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iberian Soul

3 of 11 top traders (27%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

JiJieHao0%

Iberian Soul100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Iberian Soul3 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares8,327

Combined PnL$-1.3K

JiJieHao8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares7,052

Combined PnL$-3.3K

Iberian Soul — 27%JiJieHao — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
itwasawholething	Iberian Soulavg 63.2¢	$4.6K	$3.4K	$-1.2K	59% 57-39 (96)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Iberian Soulavg 72.7¢	$1.1K	$942.11	-$111.18	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Iberian Soulavg 61.4¢	$776.42	$842.21	+$65.79	54% 2460-2113 (4573)
└ JiJieHao leg	JiJieHaoavg 30.9¢	$261.36	$451.02	+$189.66
└ Iberian Soul leg	Iberian Soulavg 61.4¢	$515.06	$391.19	-$123.87
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Iberian Soulavg 71.8¢	$602	$538.98	-$63.01	52% 7507-6801 (14308)
└ Iberian Soul leg	Iberian Soulavg 71.8¢	$474.38	$307.79	-$166.59
└ JiJieHao leg	JiJieHaoavg 29.5¢	$127.62	$231.19	+$103.58
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	JiJieHaoavg 50¢	$253.75	$270.98	+$17.23	59% 30682-21402 (52084)
SE seeeeeebCTR	JiJieHaoavg 32¢	$128	$213.58	+$85.58	52% 804-728 (1532)
PA pauleta23CTR	JiJieHaoavg 32¢	$128	$213.58	+$85.58	66% 23472-11826 (35298)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	JiJieHaoavg 31.2¢	$111.28	$190.31	+$79.04	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
CC ccllarCTR	JiJieHaoavg 53.4¢	$151.8	$151.8	+$0	47% 461-527 (988)
poshposhCTR<$100	JiJieHaoavg 19.1¢	$34.31	$95.7	+$61.39	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
46 467j6yj<$100	Iberian Soulavg 99.9¢	$68.81	$68.85	+$0.03	97% 3389-119 (3508)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	JiJieHaoavg 60.1¢	$3.6K	$7.37	$-3.6K	52% 1263-1146 (2409)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	JiJieHaoavg 33¢	$3.3	$5.34	+$2.04	51% 1532-1483 (3015)

itwasawholething

Iberian Soul

Invested

$4,623.8

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

59%

57-39 (96)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Iberian Soul

Invested

$1,053.29

Value

$942.11

PnL

-$111.18

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$776.42

Value

$842.21

PnL

+$65.79

Record

54%

2460-2113 (4573)

Both legs:

JiJieHao$261.3630.9¢+$189.66

Iberian Soul$515.0661.4¢-$123.87

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$602

Value

$538.98

PnL

-$63.01

Record

52%

7507-6801 (14308)

Both legs:

Iberian Soul$474.3871.8¢-$166.59

JiJieHao$127.6229.5¢+$103.58

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$253.75

Value

$270.98

PnL

+$17.23

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

seeeeeebCTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$128

Value

$213.58

PnL

+$85.58

Record

52%

804-728 (1532)

pauleta23CTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$128

Value

$213.58

PnL

+$85.58

Record

66%

23472-11826 (35298)

topdogbigboiCTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$111.28

Value

$190.31

PnL

+$79.04

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

ccllarCTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$151.8

Value

$151.8

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

461-527 (988)

poshposhCTR<$100

JiJieHao

Invested

$34.31

Value

$95.7

PnL

+$61.39

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

467j6yj<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$68.81

Value

$68.85

PnL

+$0.03

Record

97%

3389-119 (3508)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

JiJieHao

Invested

$3,607.8

Value

$7.37

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

52%

1263-1146 (2409)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

JiJieHao

Invested

$3.3

Value

$5.34

PnL

+$2.04

Record

51%

1532-1483 (3015)

Research grade

NeutralIberian Soul at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Iberian Soul

3 of 11 top traders (27%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iberian Soul wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.