Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs BASEMENT BOYS - Map 2 Winner

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold JiJieHao (50%) · JiJieHao at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31

JiJieHao>99¢BASEMENT BOYS<1¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

JiJieHao

Consensus Traders

JiJieHao 50%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$116.44

Smart Money Entry

79.8¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralJiJieHao at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

JiJieHao

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

JiJieHao100%

BASEMENT BOYS0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

JiJieHao4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,747

Combined PnL-$366.67

BASEMENT BOYS4 traders

Total Value$694.51

Total Shares2,047

Combined PnL+$250.23

JiJieHao — 50%BASEMENT BOYS — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	JiJieHaoavg 78.3¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$339.44	52% 1247-1130 (2377)
GT gt7238CTR	BASEMENT BOYSavg 24.1¢	$438.49	$682.49	+$244.01	45% 616-754 (1370)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	JiJieHaoavg 81.9¢	$259.73	$275.54	+$15.81	54% 2413-2095 (4508)
TE testBruno2	JiJieHaoavg 85.6¢	$1.1K	$242.58	-$42.51	58% 875-633 (1508)
46 467j6yj<$100	JiJieHaoavg 99¢	$58.69	$58.15	-$0.53	97% 3327-116 (3443)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	BASEMENT BOYSavg 5¢	$0.98	$7.38	+$6.39	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	BASEMENT BOYSavg 2¢	$3.71	$4.63	+$0.93	52% 13790-12592 (26382)
poshposhCTR<$100	BASEMENT BOYSavg 5¢	$1.1	$0.01	-$1.09	59% 10191-7178 (17369)

JohnLKellyJr

JiJieHao

Invested

$1,680.89

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$339.44

Record

52%

1247-1130 (2377)

gt7238CTR

BASEMENT BOYS

Invested

$438.49

Value

$682.49

PnL

+$244.01

Record

45%

616-754 (1370)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

JiJieHao

Invested

$259.73

Value

$275.54

PnL

+$15.81

Record

54%

2413-2095 (4508)

testBruno2

JiJieHao

Invested

$1,102.81

Value

$242.58

PnL

-$42.51

Record

58%

875-633 (1508)

467j6yj<$100

JiJieHao

Invested

$58.69

Value

$58.15

PnL

-$0.53

Record

97%

3327-116 (3443)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

BASEMENT BOYS

Invested

$0.98

Value

$7.38

PnL

+$6.39

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

BASEMENT BOYS

Invested

$3.71

Value

$4.63

PnL

+$0.93

Record

52%

13790-12592 (26382)

poshposhCTR<$100

BASEMENT BOYS

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.09

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

Research grade

NeutralJiJieHao at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

JiJieHao

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that JiJieHao wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.