Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs BASEMENT BOYS - Map 1 Winner

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold JiJieHao (75%) · JiJieHao at 70¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31

JiJieHao70¢BASEMENT BOYS30¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

JiJieHao

Consensus Traders

JiJieHao 75%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$330.27

Smart Money Entry

73.8¢ → 69.7¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralJiJieHao at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

JiJieHao

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

JiJieHao70%

BASEMENT BOYS30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

JiJieHao6 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares6,491

Combined PnL-$48.48

BASEMENT BOYS2 traders

Total Value$207.11

Total Shares1,943

Combined PnL-$281.78

JiJieHao — 75%BASEMENT BOYS — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on JiJieHao. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBASEMENT BOYS 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJiJieHao 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000JiJieHao 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	JiJieHaoavg 72.4¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$126.29	52% 1247-1130 (2377)
46 467j6yj	JiJieHaoavg 99¢	$771.1	$751.63	-$19.47	97% 3327-116 (3443)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	JiJieHaoavg 63.7¢	$603.64	$611.31	+$7.67	54% 2413-2095 (4508)
GT gt7238CTR	BASEMENT BOYSavg 24.8¢	$455.45	$174.8	-$280.65	45% 616-754 (1370)
0X 0x4f2	JiJieHaoavg 60.3¢	$145.63	$168.26	+$22.63	52% 9158-8549 (17707)
TE testBruno2	JiJieHaoavg 58¢	$318.63	$156.9	+$63.49	58% 875-633 (1508)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	BASEMENT BOYSavg 32.6¢	$33.44	$32.31	-$1.14	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
poshposh<$100	JiJieHaoavg 61¢	$24.39	$27.89	+$3.49	59% 10191-7178 (17369)

JohnLKellyJr

JiJieHao

Invested

$3,334.54

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$126.29

Record

52%

1247-1130 (2377)

467j6yj

JiJieHao

Invested

$771.1

Value

$751.63

PnL

-$19.47

Record

97%

3327-116 (3443)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

JiJieHao

Invested

$603.64

Value

$611.31

PnL

+$7.67

Record

54%

2413-2095 (4508)

gt7238CTR

BASEMENT BOYS

Invested

$455.45

Value

$174.8

PnL

-$280.65

Record

45%

616-754 (1370)

0x4f2

JiJieHao

Invested

$145.63

Value

$168.26

PnL

+$22.63

Record

52%

9158-8549 (17707)

testBruno2

JiJieHao

Invested

$318.63

Value

$156.9

PnL

+$63.49

Record

58%

875-633 (1508)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

BASEMENT BOYS

Invested

$33.44

Value

$32.31

PnL

-$1.14

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

poshposh<$100

JiJieHao

Invested

$24.39

Value

$27.89

PnL

+$3.49

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

Research grade

NeutralJiJieHao at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

JiJieHao

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on JiJieHao. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBASEMENT BOYS 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJiJieHao 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000JiJieHao 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that JiJieHao wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.7%

69.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.