Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold BASEMENT BOYS, while the market favors JiJieHao (96%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO3) - Circuito Retake Playoffs

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold BASEMENT BOYS (50%) · BASEMENT BOYS at 4.5¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31

JiJieHao96¢BASEMENT BOYS4¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

BASEMENT BOYS

Consensus Traders

BASEMENT BOYS 50%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$81.24

Smart Money Entry

22.6¢ → 4.5¢

-80% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidBASEMENT BOYS at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BASEMENT BOYS

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors JiJieHao 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

JiJieHao96%

BASEMENT BOYS5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BASEMENT BOYS4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares7,135

Combined PnL+$76.8

JiJieHao4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,355

Combined PnL+$4.44

BASEMENT BOYS — 50%JiJieHao — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JohnnyWinsCTR	BASEMENT BOYSavg 22.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$61.84	43% 122-161 (283)
hasobidale	JiJieHaoavg 76.6¢	$802.99	$802.42	-$0.57	66% 224-116 (340)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	JiJieHaoavg 78.5¢	$183.69	$187.25	+$3.56	54% 2413-2095 (4508)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	JiJieHaoavg 94¢	$64.42	$66.14	+$1.72	52% 13785-12588 (26373)
0X 0x4f2<$100	JiJieHaoavg 95¢	$50	$49.74	-$0.26	52% 9158-8549 (17707)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	BASEMENT BOYSavg 23¢	$23.56	$24.1	+$0.54	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
HRTradingCTR<$100	BASEMENT BOYSavg 23¢	$1.15	$1.18	+$0.03	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
AM ameisgoat11CTR	BASEMENT BOYSavg 15.4¢	$223.82	$1.17	+$14.39	48% 2393-2622 (5015)

JohnnyWinsCTR

BASEMENT BOYS

Invested

$1,585.49

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$61.84

Record

43%

122-161 (283)

hasobidale

JiJieHao

Invested

$802.99

Value

$802.42

PnL

-$0.57

Record

66%

224-116 (340)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

JiJieHao

Invested

$183.69

Value

$187.25

PnL

+$3.56

Record

54%

2413-2095 (4508)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

JiJieHao

Invested

$64.42

Value

$66.14

PnL

+$1.72

Record

52%

13785-12588 (26373)

0x4f2<$100

JiJieHao

Invested

$50

Value

$49.74

PnL

-$0.26

Record

52%

9158-8549 (17707)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

BASEMENT BOYS

Invested

$23.56

Value

$24.1

PnL

+$0.54

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

HRTradingCTR<$100

BASEMENT BOYS

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.18

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

ameisgoat11CTR

BASEMENT BOYS

Invested

$223.82

Value

$1.17

PnL

+$14.39

Record

48%

2393-2622 (5015)

Research grade

AvoidBASEMENT BOYS at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

BASEMENT BOYS

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors JiJieHao 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BASEMENT BOYS wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.8%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1636.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

1736.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.