Counter-Strike: Iberian Soul vs ZOTIX (BO1) - Circuito Retake Group C
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Iberian Soul (78%) · Iberian Soul at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Iberian Soul
9
Iberian Soul 78%
$1.1K
$3.7
84.5¢ → 96.7¢
+14% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralIberian Soul at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 hasobidale | Iberian Soulavg 84.7¢ | $773.75 | $771.87 | -$1.88 | 66% 211-109 (320) |
 Basquetipster | Iberian Soulavg 86¢ | $172 | $170 | -$2 | 68% 1660-764 (2424) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Iberian Soulavg 82¢ | $94.88 | $98.35 | +$3.47 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Iberian Soulavg 87¢ | $41.76 | $40.8 | -$0.96 | 49% 18818-19217 (38035) |
TE testBruno2<$100 | Iberian Soulavg 89¢ | $18.4 | $18.3 | -$0.1 | 58% 827-607 (1434) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f<$100 | Iberian Soulavg 85¢ | $9 | $10 | +$1 | 53% 2324-2057 (4381) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Iberian Soulavg 36.5¢ | $3.65 | $8.5 | +$4.85 | 60% 3286-2206 (5492) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | ZOTIXavg 18¢ | $3.38 | $2.82 | -$0.56 | 59% 9676-6661 (16337) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | ZOTIXavg 14¢ | $1.05 | $0.94 | -$0.11 | 52% 3688-3350 (7038) |
hasobidaleInvested
$773.75
Value
$771.87
PnL
-$1.88
Record
66%
211-109 (320)
BasquetipsterInvested
$172
Value
$170
PnL
-$2
Record
68%
1660-764 (2424)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$94.88
Value
$98.35
PnL
+$3.47
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
Invested
$41.76
Value
$40.8
PnL
-$0.96
Record
49%
18818-19217 (38035)
Invested
$18.4
Value
$18.3
PnL
-$0.1
Record
58%
827-607 (1434)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f<$100Invested
$9
Value
$10
PnL
+$1
Record
53%
2324-2057 (4381)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$8.5
PnL
+$4.85
Record
60%
3286-2206 (5492)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$3.38
Value
$2.82
PnL
-$0.56
Record
59%
9676-6661 (16337)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.94
PnL
-$0.11
Record
52%
3688-3350 (7038)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hasobidale
Iberian Soul — $771.87
Basquetipster
Iberian Soul — $170
VeryLucky888
Iberian Soul — $98.35
omnibus-076daa
Iberian Soul — $40.8
testBruno2
Iberian Soul — $18.3
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f
Iberian Soul — $10
shiifoo
Iberian Soul — $8.5
poshposh
CTRZOTIX — $2.82
HRTrading
CTRZOTIX — $0.94