Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Donstu Esports, while the market favors Invicta (100%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Donstu Esports (43%) · Donstu Esports at 0.1¢ · $965 held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Donstu Esports
7
Donstu Esports 43%
$964.87
$-1.5K
52.9¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidDonstu Esports at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Invicta 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Donstu Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Invictaavg 66.9¢ | $461.6 | $559.89 | +$98.3 | 54% 2413-2095 (4508) |
TE testBruno2 | Invictaavg 74.6¢ | $157.22 | $159.92 | +$2.7 | 58% 875-633 (1508) |
0X 0x4f2 | Invictaavg 63.5¢ | $136.93 | $115.75 | -$21.18 | 52% 9158-8549 (17707) |
 poshposhCTR | Donstu Esportsavg 19.2¢ | $10.11 | $108.12 | +$98.01 | 59% 10176-7169 (17345) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Invictaavg 51¢ | $10 | $19.6 | +$9.6 | 67% 23335-11740 (35075) |
 dicekingCTR | Donstu Esportsavg 55¢ | $1.6K | $1.5 | $-1.6K | 58% 323-236 (559) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Donstu Esportsavg 19.3¢ | $31.55 | $0.08 | -$31.47 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$461.6
Value
$559.89
PnL
+$98.3
Record
54%
2413-2095 (4508)
Invested
$157.22
Value
$159.92
PnL
+$2.7
Record
58%
875-633 (1508)
Invested
$136.93
Value
$115.75
PnL
-$21.18
Record
52%
9158-8549 (17707)
poshposhCTRInvested
$10.11
Value
$108.12
PnL
+$98.01
Record
59%
10176-7169 (17345)
Invested
$10
Value
$19.6
PnL
+$9.6
Record
67%
23335-11740 (35075)
dicekingCTRInvested
$1,649.95
Value
$1.5
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
58%
323-236 (559)
Invested
$31.55
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$31.47
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.